Big Chase Day....Take 2
First, an update on the horrendous flooding in North Texas. Read the Dallas Morning News story and check out WFAA for the latest. It appears this is the worst flooding on 150 years. 5 people lost their lives and a few others are missing with the worst presumed. Absolutely devestating. As if this tragedy isn't bad enough, in the news today are 9 brave firefighters that died in the line of duty in South Carolina. A dark day indeed.
For the TX PH severe potential....
I completely missed the weak subsidence across the area yesterday which the SPC picked up on with the 20Z outlook. As a result, barely a cumulus cloud developed despite decent surface convergence and surface low which showed up well on the LBB radar loops yesterday. What a waste of CAPE.
Today, another one of those special events is occurring....70 degree dewpoints making it up on the caprock. It felt truly tropical this morning in Amarillo. The result will once again be some volatile instabilities for the "Caprock Magic" to work with. With roughly NW flow aloft and pronounced SE upslope flow, the stage is set for some nasty supercells to explode today. A weak frontal boundary exists across the S TX PH, but should wash out quickly this afternoon. With no surface focus to speak of, exactly where to target will be the question. The NAM and RUC are offering different solutions as to where stuff will break out. But, generally, they are favoring the TX PH. We don't seem to have the cap and subsidence that klilled us yesterday.
So, working away today in Amarillo seems to be the best option. :-) I'll start monitoring things later this afternoon and watch satellite and surface parameters.
For the TX PH severe potential....
I completely missed the weak subsidence across the area yesterday which the SPC picked up on with the 20Z outlook. As a result, barely a cumulus cloud developed despite decent surface convergence and surface low which showed up well on the LBB radar loops yesterday. What a waste of CAPE.
Today, another one of those special events is occurring....70 degree dewpoints making it up on the caprock. It felt truly tropical this morning in Amarillo. The result will once again be some volatile instabilities for the "Caprock Magic" to work with. With roughly NW flow aloft and pronounced SE upslope flow, the stage is set for some nasty supercells to explode today. A weak frontal boundary exists across the S TX PH, but should wash out quickly this afternoon. With no surface focus to speak of, exactly where to target will be the question. The NAM and RUC are offering different solutions as to where stuff will break out. But, generally, they are favoring the TX PH. We don't seem to have the cap and subsidence that klilled us yesterday.
So, working away today in Amarillo seems to be the best option. :-) I'll start monitoring things later this afternoon and watch satellite and surface parameters.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 6/19/2007 10:52:00 AM
3 Comments:
I noticed that AMA was going to do a special sounding this afternoon to see if they think the cap will hold or not.
All the models show the 700mb cooling to about 11c and busting this evening. We will see what the sounding shows. All I know is as of 1pm the mesoanalysis shows cape of 6500 and LI's of -8!!!! That is insane on top of the caprock. We will hit 7000 by max heating. Anything does go and it will be a monster. Gorilla hail. Anybody remember June 21st, 2004??? almost same setup guys!! Thats the day the west side of Amarillo was demolished with softball hail causing over $100 million in damage. Also had 7 tornados out of that storm.
After today we ridge out until July. This is it guys. After today we can pack up our chase equipment until Sept.
Well, certainly not what I had in mind with such explosive levels of CAPE. The storms were pretty stout, no doubt, but not what I would expect. Perhaps a boundary to focus on was the missing ingredient along with storms meandering around in chaotic fashion instead of moving in a steady direction. I sure wish I could have made it to Kansas!
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