The Forecast Challenge

UPDATE 2200z: Not looking too good on satellite. Still watching good convergence around Lubbock to Tulia, but cumulus fighting subsidence from departing little vortmax up in the extreme NE TX PH. It has been much slower to move out than I expected. Instability a tad weaker than I expected too. I'm losing hope fast. Will probably just head home straight from work.

The models aren't handling the instability today very well over the PH region. Objective SPC mesoanalysis already indicate ~1000 j/Kg with a good deal of moisture in place. Earlier convection and clouds are slowly clearing out which should allow for pretty good insolation today to cook things nicely across NM and the plains around Lubbock and perhaps a portion of the SW TX PH.

I'm sure an outflow/baroclinic boundary or two will abound today and become quite prevalent later this afternoon. It's hard to pinpoint, but should roughly be in the area outlined above where good insolation will occur. The models, backed up by current surface analysis, indicate a convergence zone setting up very roughly along the I-27 corridor today.

Upstairs, we have a good 300mb jet which will aid anvil ventilation and compensate somewhat for the weaker mid level flow. So, shear should be adequate. I fully expect to see ~1500 SBCAPE this afternoon without a problem. The 0-3km SBCAPE should be pretty good and in fact, is already up to 125 j/kg on the SPC mesoanalysis in the SW quad of the PH. I'm a bigger fan of MLCAPE, and even that should exceed 500 j/kg today. Basically, parameters will be there albeit marginal.

My plan is to watch things unfold and let daytime heating cook and build some Cu and help "draw" a picture of where things are setting up focus-wise. I'm eyeing the SW quad of the TX PH as storm motions should be N or NNE. I would be really tickled if a storm would remain stationary on a boundary someplace. :-)

So....in monitoring mode now. I do expect to be out and about today.