My Cap Runneth Over

It looks like the cap will win out today for anything south of Nebraska. The main reason for this are the jet dynamics coming into play. The capped areas today will be under the influence of a right exit region across Kansas and the anticyclonic region elsewhere. In plain terms, weak to moderate descending motions in the atmosphere will keep everything suppressed quite effectively today by strengthening and deepening the capping inversion. However, South Dakota and the northern parts of Nebraska should rock and roll big time this afternoon and early evening. I expect several reports of ecstatic Happy Dew Dancing this evening. ;-)

Of course, should any isolated storm erupt down here in my neck of the woods, it would go severe because of the instability in place and perhaps pop a tornado or two. But, I'm not burning any precious gas on such a long shot possibility. I give it about a 5% chance of something popping within my range today. I'll be watching it of course. If I lived closer to Steve Miller OK, I'd probably buy the beer and watch it from his boat. LOL!!

Tomorrow, perhaps OK will be a good play. But I'm waiting for Friday/Saturday/Sunday as I think those will be good chase days.

Friday still looks like a great setup in SW TX and SE NM. The models are inching the forecast frontal position a tad further north with each run, so I'm pretty confident of a setup between Lubbock and Midland. With helicities easily exceeding 300, some corkscrewing supercells are a distinct possibility with tornadic potential along the stationary frontal boundary.

Saturday and Sunday look like good days with a combination of dryline and/or mountain induced convection rolling into E CO, W KS and the TX PH with excellent parameters for supercells.

That's it for now from Tailchaser central.