A Big Chase Day?
UPDATE 1830Z: While I was at lunch, I learned of some very serious, catastrophic flooding occurring around my old home region. Hardest hit appear to be Gainesville, where I used to live for a short time, but many locations in North Texas are having problems. I've got relatives east of Gainesville, but they are ok. Watching some of the video, I clearly recognize several areas now underwater. It's pretty stunning. For more info: http://www.wfaa.com/
For the first time this season, we are setting up some explosive instabilities in the southern plains. With a weak frontal boundary slowly sagging across the TX PH and OK this afternoon with a weak surface low around Plainview, it is a good surface setup.
What gets the stormwood going for me is the forecast highly volatile and explosive CAPE...both surface and mixed layer. The RUC is forecasting surface-based CAPE by 00Z exceeding 8000 j/kg. That's right...you read that correctly. Take a good look at that because it's rare to see it that high...even for the RUC. The mixed-layer CAPE is pegged at 6000j/kg. These bullseyes of instability are across the area from around Wichita Falls southward into the hill country. It is a proverbial ammunition depot (not just a powder keg) waiting to be lit. With this kind of instability, the atmosphere tends to ignore the normal parameters of shear. In fact, the meteorology textbook gets thrown out the door. "Unexpected" events tend to occur (ie...Jarrel, Lake Whitney tornado). There is plenty of veering with height which is all we need. :-)
There is no way to truly forecast what will happen except that any supercell that gets isolated is going to go absolutely bonkers...totally crazy. There is no telling which way they will move/propogate, but the general idea I have is pretty much almost due south...slowly. There will of course be alot of potential for HP cells of course, but as I said above, anything can (and often does!) happen.
So, back to the forecast after salivating over the potential......
The TX PH and S Plains area is where I'll focus since that is where I can chase today. :-) Although we won't see the insane instabilities, they will still be quite stout of 3000-4000 j/Kg. The question is exactly where the front/surface low ends up by peak heating and initiation. The RUC I think has the right idea of the Lubbock/Plainview/Turkey vicinity as the best spot. It is also breaking out a lone cell there which makes sense under a strong cap. That is my target for this afternoon. But, it could easily shift 50-100 miles too, so I'll be watching it closely. When a cell does pop, it will go thermonuclear quickly. Given the boundary in place and strong instabilities and good vertical veering, it should be quite a show! It also appears to be a good setup for a couple of landspouts.
For the insance instabilities east of there, I would love to be along and west of the I-35 corridor today to catch anything that can pop up down there. The cap is fairly stout, but I suspect some subtle boundaries are around. All of the parameters are there for some tornadic supercells... a couple of them brutal.
There is also a couple of more opportunities through Wednesday. More on that in the morning.
More updates this afternoon.
For the first time this season, we are setting up some explosive instabilities in the southern plains. With a weak frontal boundary slowly sagging across the TX PH and OK this afternoon with a weak surface low around Plainview, it is a good surface setup.
What gets the stormwood going for me is the forecast highly volatile and explosive CAPE...both surface and mixed layer. The RUC is forecasting surface-based CAPE by 00Z exceeding 8000 j/kg. That's right...you read that correctly. Take a good look at that because it's rare to see it that high...even for the RUC. The mixed-layer CAPE is pegged at 6000j/kg. These bullseyes of instability are across the area from around Wichita Falls southward into the hill country. It is a proverbial ammunition depot (not just a powder keg) waiting to be lit. With this kind of instability, the atmosphere tends to ignore the normal parameters of shear. In fact, the meteorology textbook gets thrown out the door. "Unexpected" events tend to occur (ie...Jarrel, Lake Whitney tornado). There is plenty of veering with height which is all we need. :-)
There is no way to truly forecast what will happen except that any supercell that gets isolated is going to go absolutely bonkers...totally crazy. There is no telling which way they will move/propogate, but the general idea I have is pretty much almost due south...slowly. There will of course be alot of potential for HP cells of course, but as I said above, anything can (and often does!) happen.
So, back to the forecast after salivating over the potential......
The TX PH and S Plains area is where I'll focus since that is where I can chase today. :-) Although we won't see the insane instabilities, they will still be quite stout of 3000-4000 j/Kg. The question is exactly where the front/surface low ends up by peak heating and initiation. The RUC I think has the right idea of the Lubbock/Plainview/Turkey vicinity as the best spot. It is also breaking out a lone cell there which makes sense under a strong cap. That is my target for this afternoon. But, it could easily shift 50-100 miles too, so I'll be watching it closely. When a cell does pop, it will go thermonuclear quickly. Given the boundary in place and strong instabilities and good vertical veering, it should be quite a show! It also appears to be a good setup for a couple of landspouts.
For the insance instabilities east of there, I would love to be along and west of the I-35 corridor today to catch anything that can pop up down there. The cap is fairly stout, but I suspect some subtle boundaries are around. All of the parameters are there for some tornadic supercells... a couple of them brutal.
There is also a couple of more opportunities through Wednesday. More on that in the morning.
More updates this afternoon.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 6/18/2007 09:33:00 AM
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