6/9 Pics & Forecast Mumblings
Today might present a decent little chase closer to home. I'm eyeing a couple of subtle outflow boundaries from around Tulia to Pampa. Instabilities are forecast to reach 2000+ in the TX PH today, particularly around those boundaries, with abit of storm-relative helicity values. Current satellite trends show that we will have strong insolation today to cook all of the ingredients up for a couple of good storms.
Tomorrow....ummmm....nothing there. LOL!
Tuesday has a good possibility for some supercells as the trough out west opens up and moves towards the TX PH and KS. How fast it does so is the wild card for where the best storms will be. The NAM is on crack with it's nil CAPE forecast...we should see at least 1500. Stay tuned for this possible event.
Beyond that, I'm not going to speculate at this point. The models are all over the place with solutions. I'm just not too lazy this morning to roll the bones and dissect the noise. It's easier to let things sort themselves out until we get some semblence of agreement among the models.
Yesterday's chase was "ok" and not quite what I hoped for. The moisture and storms just didn't quite get in sync until near dark and by that time, they quickly formed a squall. At one point near Ulysses, KS, the severe storm there took on an interesting characteristic and just almost caused me to call in a possible developing tornado. You'll see that in the pics below.
In the gripe and moan department, I had terrible data problems yesterday. The data feed for GR3 decided to take a dump. The radar images were updating every 4-5 minutes, but were consistently 30-50 minutes old. I even rebooted the computer to see if that would help...I was that desperate. When I got home, I tried GR3 on the desktop and had the same problem. AS Rick pointed out in the comments yesterday, it is apparently a NWS data feed problem. Fortunately, my data connection was pretty solid most of the time so I got COD and NWS radar images off the internet.
WxWorx was a pain in the butt too. I'd look down to see a stale image and then a red button on "XmLink". It would do this off and on the entire evening. When I got home, I discovered that one of my antenna cables had come loose and was sitting right on top of the XM antenna puck. LOL!!On top of that, the biting flies in Kansas were pretty vicious and ravenous little buggers. Even with a good dose of insect repellent, they would keep finding a place I didn't spray and "notify" me about it. Next time, I'm bringing a flame thrower. ;-)
OK....some pics!
Near Kendall, KS. The wheat fields up there were amazing...a sea of gold.
Sotmr just south of Ulysses..watch for the dust plume underneath it. Any visual evidence of rotation in the storm there? ;-)
Hmmmm...the plot thickens. I was a ways off, but I could not discern any sort of rotation in the dust column, but it was getting lifted straight up.
This is about the point where I almost made a call to NWS DDC and report a "possible" developing tornado. I wanted to watch it abit more before I did though. Besides, other spotters were closer to it.
My last good picture of the storm.
Tomorrow....ummmm....nothing there. LOL!
Tuesday has a good possibility for some supercells as the trough out west opens up and moves towards the TX PH and KS. How fast it does so is the wild card for where the best storms will be. The NAM is on crack with it's nil CAPE forecast...we should see at least 1500. Stay tuned for this possible event.
Beyond that, I'm not going to speculate at this point. The models are all over the place with solutions. I'm just not too lazy this morning to roll the bones and dissect the noise. It's easier to let things sort themselves out until we get some semblence of agreement among the models.
Yesterday's chase was "ok" and not quite what I hoped for. The moisture and storms just didn't quite get in sync until near dark and by that time, they quickly formed a squall. At one point near Ulysses, KS, the severe storm there took on an interesting characteristic and just almost caused me to call in a possible developing tornado. You'll see that in the pics below.
In the gripe and moan department, I had terrible data problems yesterday. The data feed for GR3 decided to take a dump. The radar images were updating every 4-5 minutes, but were consistently 30-50 minutes old. I even rebooted the computer to see if that would help...I was that desperate. When I got home, I tried GR3 on the desktop and had the same problem. AS Rick pointed out in the comments yesterday, it is apparently a NWS data feed problem. Fortunately, my data connection was pretty solid most of the time so I got COD and NWS radar images off the internet.
WxWorx was a pain in the butt too. I'd look down to see a stale image and then a red button on "XmLink". It would do this off and on the entire evening. When I got home, I discovered that one of my antenna cables had come loose and was sitting right on top of the XM antenna puck. LOL!!
OK....some pics!
Near Kendall, KS. The wheat fields up there were amazing...a sea of gold.
Sotmr just south of Ulysses..watch for the dust plume underneath it. Any visual evidence of rotation in the storm there? ;-)
Hmmmm...the plot thickens. I was a ways off, but I could not discern any sort of rotation in the dust column, but it was getting lifted straight up.
This is about the point where I almost made a call to NWS DDC and report a "possible" developing tornado. I wanted to watch it abit more before I did though. Besides, other spotters were closer to it.
My last good picture of the storm.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 6/10/2007 10:26:00 AM
15 Comments:
Once again you dont disappoint with awesome pics Steve. We are down to almost nothing weather wise now. Hmmmm. A certain chaser is "Dew" back in town here very shortly..(No names will be mentioned in order to protect the guilty). Aside from the afternoon type storms we now turn our eyes back to the Gulf and Atlantic.
Hmmm. I think I meant to say that you didnt disappoint. Awesome pics! Sheeesh... I need some coffee.....
Whatever the data problem was yesterday, it was affecting the allisonhouse feeds as well. I had the same issue polling through there or the NWS. It was still ongoing this morning about 4:30 am CDT.
Its all the budget cuts to the NWS. They cant even afford their intewrnet bills anymore :)
They have had major issues this year not only with data but at times radar networking. I remember back in April on the Tulia day that much of the country's radar network went down. All we could get was Clovis which was a bit far off to get good looks at Tulia and Cactus both. Steve lost both WxWorx and GR3. I only had WxWorx that day but we were both blind. If I remember he also lost total internet connection himself. It was a bad day.
I saw a story about the Hurricane center being on its backup satellite with no backups beyond that but there was no $$ left so if they lose that one then the US will be somewhat blind to any hurricanes hitting us. Can you imagine if that happens the outcry. Especially from Congress. Well guys shutup cause your the buttheads who have cut NOAA's budget.
OOooo....The plot thickens! Not good news to hear jm. I chased for years "blind" and almost got nailed by both Camilla Ga tornadoes. Not looking forward to going back to that. The problem we have here is the Tallahassee radar seems to go down an awful lot.
Awesomeness, once again. You make me want to be back there, but at least now that I'm gone, you might get some good wx. I'm just glad you didn't arrive with the crate, though I know you were tempted. I tend to be claustrophobic. ;-) It was great chatting with you this week.
I am so stinking tired. I am going to bed.
Rick, I knew what you meant and I appreciate it! :-) I'm just lucky to have gotten the opportunity to move out here in the middle of the action.
Jay, that was a day I'd like to forget. LOL!! You are dead on about the budget cuts. If they labled Ma Nature as a "terrorist", we'd get all sorts of funding. :-) That's pretty sobering news about the NHC hanging on their last string as the cane season approaches. Yikes!
David, it's good to know that everybody's data feed got whacked on Saturday. My first clue something was amiss was when I was sitting under a cell and getting hailed on...but barely a blip showed up on radar. LOL!
Dew, thanks for the kudos. :-) What doesn't show up is the long drive up there and waiting around forever it seemed until this storm finally started taking on that appearence. Between that and the hordes biting flies, those pics came with a price. LOL!! Oh...and the crate...we at least padded it and drilled some holes for air. ;-) At least you were able to sneak back into the state I see. lol!
I know how the chase goes... believe me. I've seen Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa again and Missouri.
Glad to not to have to try out the crate. ;-)
What gets me are the radars that go down in an area with ongoing severe weather for "scheduled maintenance". I realize they probably schedule these things weeks in advance, but common sense should tell anyone that if there is ongoing severe weather to postpone that damn maintenance until it's passed.
But David...That it just to logical. This is the goverment we are dealing with here! ;-)
A fact I tend to forget sometimes.
Steve, you mean you were in my neck of the woods and you didnt get ahold of me? Man my feelings are hurt. Nice pics...station had me with a reporter so I couldnt even go out. I think Mike U. was out there by you though and I believe there was a tor warning wasnt there?
Did you get my e-mail?
Lanny
Lanny,
Sorry bud! I thought you were in Wichita. I keep thinking we are going to meet up, but Ma Nature in 2007 is making that pretty doggone difficult. She ain't giving much puddin' ;-)
The cell was never TOR warned as far as I know. I though a couple of times it would be though.
Oh, and I did get your emails.
Nice pics, Steve. It sometimes works on GR3 to hit "Stop polling" then hit file>configure polling then enter in this URL
http://www.opennoaaport.net/digatmos/nexrad/
Check the "Use this server" box and hit ok. Then start polling again.
Sometimes they both don't work though :(.
That is awesome Mr. McGowan! You da man! I will certainly be giving that a try next time for sure. It's already on my chase laptop. :-)
I think I found a big part of the problem though. Somehow, Windows Update Manager reactivated itself to automatic. It must have done this sometime around June 1. I hate Microsoft!! I turned it off today and presto...good downloads. I also disabled some automatic java updating as well as the Cingular auto-update. I forgot to do the Cingular thing when I reinstalled the Connection Manager.
If anybody needs help with disabling the auto-updates I mentioned above, holler at me.
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