Forecast Ramblings

I'll be watching the big show unfold across the upper Mississippi Valley region today as a pretty potent situation unfolds. There is a grave concern for long tracked and violent tornadoes up there today. I hope that they will avoid population centers today, but in reality, there are alot of targets for storms to take aim on. Let's hope for the best. I know Dewdrop and the sisters are in the middle of the PDS watch in Iowa right now...already some tornado warnings out. They should really be in the thick of things today.

I think the SPC tornado hatch area into OK is overdone today as veered surface and 850mb flow works against helicities. But, with CAPE going nuts down there today and the frontal boundary roughly perpendicular to low level flow, some deviant moving storms could get going. It'll be fun to watch. Best of luck to the Tulsa gang today.

For tomorrow, models are in agreement to push the front further south than I first thought...south of I-20 in SW TX. I still have a slight bit of skepticism that it will make it that far south tomorrow afternoon because:

1) We are approaching mid June,

2) Noted pressure falls by afternoon upstream with 850mb winds already returning from the SE by mid afternoon, and

3) The front will encounter alot of hot air and daytime heating which typically works against frontal movements. In this case, there will full insolation behind it as well heating things up.

So, for it to make it as far south as the GFS/NAM indicate will be quite a feat. It will be interesting to see what happens. The further south it moves, it will be further away from favorable mid and upper winds for needed shear.

For Saturday, things are abit more muddy today with model forecasts. I won't go into detail yet, but I still think there will be some supercells to chase. Where is a big question right now along with how much precip develops over the PH region and along the retreating front overnight. Many questions arise. I'll focus on that as we get closer.

Sunday, still looks like E CO into E NM and the TX PH and far W KS with a dryline/upslope event. I still like the supercell potential.

Pretty much all of next week looks VERY active each day for my region. The models are being quite persistant and coming into decent agreement for an extended period of good stormchasing each and every day. I expect to be one tired little chaser next week. :-) The good news are that gas prices are showing a decent decline the past few days. I hope it lasts.

I'm looking forward to that as I start eyeing July on the calendar which is typically the end of chase season. But as crazy as this year has been...who knows? As I've stated before, E CO can really rock in July. :-)