ICE STORM UPDATE - 1/14 AM
My internet service died last night and am just now getting online. to make things even more interesting, the power here went out at 6am and was off for 3 hours. Nice.
This has certainly been a maddening event to forecast for DFW area and N TX. The freezing line has been oscillating across the area since yesterday. Aiding in the Tylenol consumption by forecasters is the fact that the rain falling into the colder air is significantly warmer. I've watched all morning as temperatures fall to around 30 here at my house only to spike to 34 when the heavy rain showers move through. So, what little ice starts to glaze things, it is quickly melted off with the heavy rains. Here is the upper air sounding from Fort Worth this morning showing just how shallow the arctic air is and how warm it is just 2-3 thousand feet off the ground:
However, a weak surface low has developed in SE OK indicated by surface wind analysis. This should serve to continue at least weak cold air advection into the area all day long and the NAM/WRF indicates this. We will hover and iscillate around freezing all day in the DFW metro area with the exception being the western portions. The Red River counties and all points N, NW, W and even SW of Fort Worth will not be able to get above freezing. This is where my greatest concern is for severe icing.
Right now, dynamics are moving back to start increasing the precipitation later today and especially overnight and Monday. Already, a thunderstorm with heavy freezing rain is moving through Stephens county.
The thing to watch is just exactly where the heaviest rain bands fall in relation to surface temperatures. I'm still concerned for DFW as temps will get solidly below freezing this evening and stay there all day Monday. Although the models are trying to shift the precip immediately S and E of DFW tomrorrow, it is far too close for comfort. So, take what the TV mets are saying this morning with a large grain of salt.
However, we have been very fortunate with this event here regionally. If surface temperatures would have been about 2-4 degrees colder, we'd be in a state of emergency right now. Thanks to the other Steve Miller in Tulsa for providing some really good information about the crippling ice storm in E/SE OK with devestating ice accumulations of 2 inches or more.
States of emergency exist for pretty much the SE half of Oklahoma and across SE part of KS and into Missouri where devestating ice accumulations are bringing down trees and powerlines en masse. All roadways are completely glazed with heavy ice creating a literal skating rink there.
Like I said, we could have easily been in the same situation if the temperature had only been a miniscule 2-4 degrees colder. Of course, we aren't out of the woods yet and I have concerns for at least moderately heavy ice hitting portions of N TX and DFW which will cause alot of problems and power outages where it occurs. I don't trust the models enough breathe any sigh of relief at this point...the worst is yet to come.
Looking ahead, the cold air really entrenches itself throughout the entire week. The cold air will be deeper and with persistent troughiness remaining to the west, models are continuing to hint at a few more shots of light precip through Thursday and at this point, would be snow. We need to keep our eyes on Thursday right now for a *possible* more significant snow event. Too much uncertainty at this point though....just keep an eye on it.
One of the really big *positive* impact from this system is that the rainfall has been very heavy with alot of significant runoff and even minor flooding. The big city park lake here in McKinney was flooded more than I've seen it in three years. In fact, the Trinity River in Dallas recorded it's highest level since 2004. The drought is finally easing.
More later today as new data becomes available.
This has certainly been a maddening event to forecast for DFW area and N TX. The freezing line has been oscillating across the area since yesterday. Aiding in the Tylenol consumption by forecasters is the fact that the rain falling into the colder air is significantly warmer. I've watched all morning as temperatures fall to around 30 here at my house only to spike to 34 when the heavy rain showers move through. So, what little ice starts to glaze things, it is quickly melted off with the heavy rains. Here is the upper air sounding from Fort Worth this morning showing just how shallow the arctic air is and how warm it is just 2-3 thousand feet off the ground:
However, a weak surface low has developed in SE OK indicated by surface wind analysis. This should serve to continue at least weak cold air advection into the area all day long and the NAM/WRF indicates this. We will hover and iscillate around freezing all day in the DFW metro area with the exception being the western portions. The Red River counties and all points N, NW, W and even SW of Fort Worth will not be able to get above freezing. This is where my greatest concern is for severe icing.
Right now, dynamics are moving back to start increasing the precipitation later today and especially overnight and Monday. Already, a thunderstorm with heavy freezing rain is moving through Stephens county.
The thing to watch is just exactly where the heaviest rain bands fall in relation to surface temperatures. I'm still concerned for DFW as temps will get solidly below freezing this evening and stay there all day Monday. Although the models are trying to shift the precip immediately S and E of DFW tomrorrow, it is far too close for comfort. So, take what the TV mets are saying this morning with a large grain of salt.
However, we have been very fortunate with this event here regionally. If surface temperatures would have been about 2-4 degrees colder, we'd be in a state of emergency right now. Thanks to the other Steve Miller in Tulsa for providing some really good information about the crippling ice storm in E/SE OK with devestating ice accumulations of 2 inches or more.
States of emergency exist for pretty much the SE half of Oklahoma and across SE part of KS and into Missouri where devestating ice accumulations are bringing down trees and powerlines en masse. All roadways are completely glazed with heavy ice creating a literal skating rink there.
Like I said, we could have easily been in the same situation if the temperature had only been a miniscule 2-4 degrees colder. Of course, we aren't out of the woods yet and I have concerns for at least moderately heavy ice hitting portions of N TX and DFW which will cause alot of problems and power outages where it occurs. I don't trust the models enough breathe any sigh of relief at this point...the worst is yet to come.
Looking ahead, the cold air really entrenches itself throughout the entire week. The cold air will be deeper and with persistent troughiness remaining to the west, models are continuing to hint at a few more shots of light precip through Thursday and at this point, would be snow. We need to keep our eyes on Thursday right now for a *possible* more significant snow event. Too much uncertainty at this point though....just keep an eye on it.
One of the really big *positive* impact from this system is that the rainfall has been very heavy with alot of significant runoff and even minor flooding. The big city park lake here in McKinney was flooded more than I've seen it in three years. In fact, the Trinity River in Dallas recorded it's highest level since 2004. The drought is finally easing.
More later today as new data becomes available.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 1/14/2007 11:11:00 AM
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