Arctic Express Headed For Texas
The models are in excellent agreement on bringing down some frigid arctic air starting this weekend. Exactly when is the big question and something the models always struggle with. My experience is that the arctic air almost always arrives earlier. With the existing heavy snow pack in E CO and W KS and at least a light snow pack from there and N/NW, the arctic airmass will not modify as much as it normally would. Thus, this will further aid in it's southward plunge.
My best guess is the initial front across North Texas by early Saturday morning with much colder air filtering in behind through the weekend. By Monday, the coldest air will arrive and should hold tough for a few days once it does. In fact, we might not get above freezing from sometime around Sunday through sometime Wednesday.
The crystal ball madness ensues in regards to precipitation. The 12z GFS isn't as deep and more progressive with the upper level system. Even the ECMWF is now showing the system to be a little more progresive. If this is the case, then our precip chances here would end Sunday. But, we would be near or below freezing for that last half of the event late Saturday and Sunday, so we should see some wintery precipitation. The cold air looks to be shallow enough for a better chance of freezing rain and sleet. How much? I'm not going there yet. Too early for that.
My twin namesake from Tulsa had an interesting snippet (one of many in his blog)concerning the most popular food item for winter storms events...at least for WalMart. Strawberry Poptarts! LOL!!! I believe that because it's one of my secret junk food cravings. With a good cup of coffee, I'm set for the day! They are pretty fattening though, despite being "fortified" with vitamins and other things "good" for you. So, I'll use the powers of my weather weenie prognosticative abilities and assault the grocery store this evening in a premptive strike to horde the Strawberry Poptarts. ;-) I might also pick up a little firewood for "effect". That is something worthy of my own interesting snippet...
Most fireplaces actually are more of a detriment to heating your home as you might imagine. While it does indeed generate good heat in a small portion of your house, it is in effect a very strong convective force. As the heat rises in the chimney, so does the air...and guess from where that escaping air is replaced from? From around every little crack and crevice in your house....around windows, doors, etc. Yep, that bitterly cold arctic air seeps into the rest of your house in much greater volume. So, no, you won't save on your electric bill and in fact, it is often higher. :-) How do I know this? I work with a couple of guys that have been in the energy industry for a combined total of 50 years. Plus, there are studies that confirm this. Not every house is like this, but a good majority of them are.
As far as my personal "Winds Of Change", I'm still waiting for a final decision. Stay tuned....
My best guess is the initial front across North Texas by early Saturday morning with much colder air filtering in behind through the weekend. By Monday, the coldest air will arrive and should hold tough for a few days once it does. In fact, we might not get above freezing from sometime around Sunday through sometime Wednesday.
The crystal ball madness ensues in regards to precipitation. The 12z GFS isn't as deep and more progressive with the upper level system. Even the ECMWF is now showing the system to be a little more progresive. If this is the case, then our precip chances here would end Sunday. But, we would be near or below freezing for that last half of the event late Saturday and Sunday, so we should see some wintery precipitation. The cold air looks to be shallow enough for a better chance of freezing rain and sleet. How much? I'm not going there yet. Too early for that.
My twin namesake from Tulsa had an interesting snippet (one of many in his blog)concerning the most popular food item for winter storms events...at least for WalMart. Strawberry Poptarts! LOL!!! I believe that because it's one of my secret junk food cravings. With a good cup of coffee, I'm set for the day! They are pretty fattening though, despite being "fortified" with vitamins and other things "good" for you. So, I'll use the powers of my weather weenie prognosticative abilities and assault the grocery store this evening in a premptive strike to horde the Strawberry Poptarts. ;-) I might also pick up a little firewood for "effect". That is something worthy of my own interesting snippet...
Most fireplaces actually are more of a detriment to heating your home as you might imagine. While it does indeed generate good heat in a small portion of your house, it is in effect a very strong convective force. As the heat rises in the chimney, so does the air...and guess from where that escaping air is replaced from? From around every little crack and crevice in your house....around windows, doors, etc. Yep, that bitterly cold arctic air seeps into the rest of your house in much greater volume. So, no, you won't save on your electric bill and in fact, it is often higher. :-) How do I know this? I work with a couple of guys that have been in the energy industry for a combined total of 50 years. Plus, there are studies that confirm this. Not every house is like this, but a good majority of them are.
As far as my personal "Winds Of Change", I'm still waiting for a final decision. Stay tuned....
posted by Steve Miller TX at 1/09/2007 02:17:00 PM
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