Winter Weather Onslaught

As of today, things still aren't clear cut as to exactly what will happen south of the Red River. The NAM/WRF model for it's second consecutive run is insisting on a brutal ice storm from W/NW TX through central and NE portions of OK. It tries to keep us hovering just above freezing for most of the precip event.

The big variable right now amongst al the models is the evolution of the upper air pattern through Monday. The NAM/WRF is more aggressive with a stronger, deeper, slower system with the GFS much less so. With such developing storm systems along the west coast, they quite often end up being underforecast by most of the models this far out. With that in mind and the trend of this winter season so far, I'm siding more with the NAM/WRF.

This one needs to be taken very seriously. If the aforementioned model verifies, we could easily see an ice storm with up to 2" accumulation of powerlines and trees similar to what happened a couple of weeks ago across KS and S NE. With a higher population density down here, the impact would be disastrous. If major metro areas like DFW, OKC and Tulsa are hit, it will truly be a nightmare of epic proportions. I'm especially concerned because I have an all-electric house. Yikes!! I better go grab some firewood and a case of strawberry poptarts. ;-)

But, at this point, I have to stress that there is still considerable uncertainty at this point as to what will happen. We'll have to watch and see if the model consensus begins to narrow by tomorrow.