ICE STORM UPDATE 1
Here is a good link to the NWSFO in Fort Worth that has a special page for this unfolding ice storm:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/specialwx.php
From the NWS discussion early this morning....I think it is dead on. This is going to get real nasty:
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ICE STORM WARNING SLIGHTLY EAST AND SOUTH AS THE FREEZE LINE CONTINUES TO SLIDE FASTER AND FARTHER THAN MODELS DEPICTED AND WE EARLIER THOUGHT. WE ALSO EXTENDED THE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS NOT HANDLED THIS EVENT VERY WELL WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN CLOSER...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM TEMP GUIDANCE.
WHERE IT IS FREEZING NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR 48 HOURS SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN ICE PROBLEMS. WE EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO TRAVEL SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY BUT NOT FAR...PARTIALLY DUE TO HEAVY RAINS (MORE ABOUT THAT LATER). THIS AREA MAY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...HENCE WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THIS AREA.
IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT WILL COME IN WAVES AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE FIRST...COMING OUT OF THE BIG BEND AREA...WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. THE SECOND ONE...PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...COULD PRODUCE EVEN MORE PRECIP THAN TODAYS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE LAST WAVE OF ENERGY TO BRING WINTER PRECIP.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL LIFT...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...JUST WHAT WE DON'T NEED FALLING INTO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE BAD TODAY...BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BECOME WORSE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A NUMBER OF POWER OUTAGES AFFECTING QUITE A FEW NORTH TEXANS. IN ADDITION...THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL WARM THE SURFACE AIR...SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FREEZE LINE TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY...THEN SURGE BACK AFTER THE RAINS END.
THUS SOME AREAS...MAINLY THOSE IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA...MAY ALTERNATE BETWEEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN. TO THE EAST OF THE ICE STORM WARNING...WE EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS. BASICALLY...THE AREA NOT IN THE ICE STORM WARNING IS IN A FLOOD WATCH.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/specialwx.php
From the NWS discussion early this morning....I think it is dead on. This is going to get real nasty:
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ICE STORM WARNING SLIGHTLY EAST AND SOUTH AS THE FREEZE LINE CONTINUES TO SLIDE FASTER AND FARTHER THAN MODELS DEPICTED AND WE EARLIER THOUGHT. WE ALSO EXTENDED THE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS NOT HANDLED THIS EVENT VERY WELL WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN CLOSER...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM TEMP GUIDANCE.
WHERE IT IS FREEZING NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR 48 HOURS SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN ICE PROBLEMS. WE EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO TRAVEL SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY BUT NOT FAR...PARTIALLY DUE TO HEAVY RAINS (MORE ABOUT THAT LATER). THIS AREA MAY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...HENCE WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THIS AREA.
IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT WILL COME IN WAVES AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE FIRST...COMING OUT OF THE BIG BEND AREA...WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. THE SECOND ONE...PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...COULD PRODUCE EVEN MORE PRECIP THAN TODAYS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE LAST WAVE OF ENERGY TO BRING WINTER PRECIP.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL LIFT...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...JUST WHAT WE DON'T NEED FALLING INTO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE BAD TODAY...BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BECOME WORSE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A NUMBER OF POWER OUTAGES AFFECTING QUITE A FEW NORTH TEXANS. IN ADDITION...THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL WARM THE SURFACE AIR...SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FREEZE LINE TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY...THEN SURGE BACK AFTER THE RAINS END.
THUS SOME AREAS...MAINLY THOSE IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA...MAY ALTERNATE BETWEEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN. TO THE EAST OF THE ICE STORM WARNING...WE EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS. BASICALLY...THE AREA NOT IN THE ICE STORM WARNING IS IN A FLOOD WATCH.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 1/13/2007 09:22:00 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home