The "T" Word?
Here's a story about President Bush taking shelter.
UPDATE 2336z: Unfortunately, the latest report coming in from earlier tornadoes in Limestone County are 1 fatality and 12 injuries near Groesbeck. Things are calming down abit, but a solid line of intense storms are developing along the front from Archer County through Hood and Coryell counties. 0-1km SRH values are still 400+ and the threat is still there and should continue as the upper low continues it's slow approach. A weak warm front is trying to form near the DFW area roughly along I-20, so we still need to keep our guard up overnight. However, it appears that the 0-3km CAPE is waning with loss of heating and more extensive precip. So, I'm beginning to think that the tornado threat is waning as well and transitioning into a flooding type event. I'd keep an eye on the storms developing on the front for the rest of the evening.
UPDATE 2240z: I finally made it home from work. The fireworks continue with a TOR in progress in Tarrant County. Nothing has been spotted and as I write, the circulation seems to have weakened. But, we are going to be under the gun through the night.
Further south, confirmed damage and injuries and even one fatality are being reported now. In fact, a large, wedge tornado was reported very near Crawford and the President's ranch. I heard on the radio that everybody including the President and First Lady were hurredly moved into a storm shelter. College Station is now reporting tornado damage as well.
Other reports in N TX within the past 2 hours:
CORYELL COUNTY: GERALD BELL REP 12 STRUCTURES DAMAGED WITH ROOFS OFF BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED NEAR FM 185 AND US 84 INTERSECTION. NO INJURIES REPORTED
LIMESTONE COUNTY: REPORT OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WITH POSSIBLE INJURIES 2W GROESBECK ON 164
BOSQUE COUNTY: LARGE TORNADO ON GROUND 8 NE CLIFTON 1/4 MI WIDE. SPOTTER REPORT
=============================================================
UPDATE 2018z: All but one TOR has expired/been cancelled. The Erath cell has waned and no longer poses a threat. The Bosque cell has weakened, but still indicating some rotation as it heads into far SW Johnson county as it moves a tad W of due N. The Limestone cell is still indicating strong rotation and a TOR is out for it. Another cell has developed in Coryell county and indicating rotation now.
^^^ 1955z in Limestone County. Large, strong rotation! Take Cover!
1954z: TORNADO IN STEPHENVILLE! Law Enforcement reports it on the ground at 377 moving towards CR176.
1943z: Confirmed tornado 2 miles south of Stephenville reported by Sheriff's Office. It is moving towards Stephenville.
1941z: Confirmed tornado in Bosque County by DPS trooper 8 miles east of Clifton near Coyote (gotta love Texas!)
^^ 1935z SRV1 image with 4 tornado warnings in effect. This is nuts! Report of a confirmed tornado wtih tree/fence damage 4 miles south of Alexander or 10 miles E fo Dublin.
^^1921z SRV1 showing both tornadic circulations
^^^^ UPDATE 1920z: the storm-relative velocity image at 1915z as the TOR was being issued for Erath County. TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED!!! One was sighted by Law Enforcement in Coryell county along with a report of a mobile home damaged.
UPDATE 1915z: A new rotating storm has rapidly developed in southern Erath county with even stronger rotation. A TOR should be issued within minutes. This is all in the area I outlined in green below. More storms are rapidly developing. This could get wild.
Current tornado watch with a tornado warning in effect. The greenish outline is where the SPC mesoanalysis is pegging as the greatest threat as of 18z.
With the upper system being slower and further south than the models forecast a couple of days ago (a very common bias), we've had time to juice up the warm sector and setup some rather impressive dynamics. In fact, if you study Jon Davies' cold core and upper low tornado event analysis, we have qute a few things coming together in that respect.
Nevertheless, with SRH values 300-600 from Northern Texas to Houston combined with very low LCLs, 0-1km shear exceeding 30 knots, 0-3km CAPE 50-100j/Kg, SBCAPE 1000+, diffluence aloft and upper/mid jet on top of a fierce LLJ at 850mb, the tornado threat exists. The SPC has a red box from about I-20 southward which I think is appropriate. Areas north of I-20 are suffereing from lack of low level instability combined with a feed of dewpoints in the lower and mid 50's from northern LA and AR. The other parameters are still impressive and certainly doesn't preclude an isolated tornado event/warning. But, the threat is more distinct and significant south of I-20. I'm seeing some things that might shift this towards teh Red River overning and in the morning...but more on that later as it is warranted.
Oops...already a TOR for Coryell County...doppler indicated. Wind is another threat with hail later tonight and in the morning.
UPDATE 2336z: Unfortunately, the latest report coming in from earlier tornadoes in Limestone County are 1 fatality and 12 injuries near Groesbeck. Things are calming down abit, but a solid line of intense storms are developing along the front from Archer County through Hood and Coryell counties. 0-1km SRH values are still 400+ and the threat is still there and should continue as the upper low continues it's slow approach. A weak warm front is trying to form near the DFW area roughly along I-20, so we still need to keep our guard up overnight. However, it appears that the 0-3km CAPE is waning with loss of heating and more extensive precip. So, I'm beginning to think that the tornado threat is waning as well and transitioning into a flooding type event. I'd keep an eye on the storms developing on the front for the rest of the evening.
UPDATE 2240z: I finally made it home from work. The fireworks continue with a TOR in progress in Tarrant County. Nothing has been spotted and as I write, the circulation seems to have weakened. But, we are going to be under the gun through the night.
Further south, confirmed damage and injuries and even one fatality are being reported now. In fact, a large, wedge tornado was reported very near Crawford and the President's ranch. I heard on the radio that everybody including the President and First Lady were hurredly moved into a storm shelter. College Station is now reporting tornado damage as well.
Other reports in N TX within the past 2 hours:
CORYELL COUNTY: GERALD BELL REP 12 STRUCTURES DAMAGED WITH ROOFS OFF BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED NEAR FM 185 AND US 84 INTERSECTION. NO INJURIES REPORTED
LIMESTONE COUNTY: REPORT OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WITH POSSIBLE INJURIES 2W GROESBECK ON 164
BOSQUE COUNTY: LARGE TORNADO ON GROUND 8 NE CLIFTON 1/4 MI WIDE. SPOTTER REPORT
=============================================================
UPDATE 2018z: All but one TOR has expired/been cancelled. The Erath cell has waned and no longer poses a threat. The Bosque cell has weakened, but still indicating some rotation as it heads into far SW Johnson county as it moves a tad W of due N. The Limestone cell is still indicating strong rotation and a TOR is out for it. Another cell has developed in Coryell county and indicating rotation now.
^^^ 1955z in Limestone County. Large, strong rotation! Take Cover!
1954z: TORNADO IN STEPHENVILLE! Law Enforcement reports it on the ground at 377 moving towards CR176.
1943z: Confirmed tornado 2 miles south of Stephenville reported by Sheriff's Office. It is moving towards Stephenville.
1941z: Confirmed tornado in Bosque County by DPS trooper 8 miles east of Clifton near Coyote (gotta love Texas!)
^^ 1935z SRV1 image with 4 tornado warnings in effect. This is nuts! Report of a confirmed tornado wtih tree/fence damage 4 miles south of Alexander or 10 miles E fo Dublin.
^^1921z SRV1 showing both tornadic circulations
^^^^ UPDATE 1920z: the storm-relative velocity image at 1915z as the TOR was being issued for Erath County. TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED!!! One was sighted by Law Enforcement in Coryell county along with a report of a mobile home damaged.
UPDATE 1915z: A new rotating storm has rapidly developed in southern Erath county with even stronger rotation. A TOR should be issued within minutes. This is all in the area I outlined in green below. More storms are rapidly developing. This could get wild.
Current tornado watch with a tornado warning in effect. The greenish outline is where the SPC mesoanalysis is pegging as the greatest threat as of 18z.
With the upper system being slower and further south than the models forecast a couple of days ago (a very common bias), we've had time to juice up the warm sector and setup some rather impressive dynamics. In fact, if you study Jon Davies' cold core and upper low tornado event analysis, we have qute a few things coming together in that respect.
Nevertheless, with SRH values 300-600 from Northern Texas to Houston combined with very low LCLs, 0-1km shear exceeding 30 knots, 0-3km CAPE 50-100j/Kg, SBCAPE 1000+, diffluence aloft and upper/mid jet on top of a fierce LLJ at 850mb, the tornado threat exists. The SPC has a red box from about I-20 southward which I think is appropriate. Areas north of I-20 are suffereing from lack of low level instability combined with a feed of dewpoints in the lower and mid 50's from northern LA and AR. The other parameters are still impressive and certainly doesn't preclude an isolated tornado event/warning. But, the threat is more distinct and significant south of I-20. I'm seeing some things that might shift this towards teh Red River overning and in the morning...but more on that later as it is warranted.
Oops...already a TOR for Coryell County...doppler indicated. Wind is another threat with hail later tonight and in the morning.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 12/29/2006 01:02:00 PM
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