ICE STORM!!!
After perusing latest model data combined with current trends, it appears that at least the DFW area and areas north and northwest are going to get slammed with a severe ice storm. The latest NAM/RUC are showing temperatures finally dropping below freezing by morning and maybe drop another degree or two through the day as colder air continues to filter in. Heavy rain is forecast by the models and I certainly concur. With liquid amounts through Monday morning approaching 4-5 inches, this certainly has the potential to be a very brutal and severe ice storm....and the worst one we've seen 27 years.
So far, an interesting phenomena has been ongoing through this evening. Surface temperatures have remained steady with a few staions actually increasing a degree or two. The reason for this is that the rain is considerably warmer (50F!) than the air in the lowest 1-2 thousand feet. This tends to keep temperatures boosted a few degrees. In fact, this happens alot in North Texas and averts alot of potentially severe ice storms.
However, the air filtering in from Oklahoma is pretty darned cold with upper teens to mid 20's with single digits in Nebraska. Therefore, I am in strong agreement with the NAM temperature forecasts through Monday. So, at or below freezing is certainly likely for DFW starting in the morning...and a guarantee for areas west and north. This will coincide perfectly for the very heavy precipitation amounts expected. The NAM tries to keep DFW on the northern edge of the core of heaviest precip amounts, but within range of typical devience.
If everything does in fact come together as currently indicated, areas of N TX could see ice of at least 2 inches thick or more coating trees and powerlines by late Sunday. You can certainly expect widespread power outages...and in DFW that spells total and complete chaos. It would take a couple of weeks or more to get everybody restored if this is bad as it *potentially* could be.
But, if we are lucky and the cold air is a tad deeper, we could see more sleet out of this and spare us the devestating ice storm. This also happens quite abit too and spares us the massive power outages. This will have to be closely monitored on an hourly basis and analyze data continuously.
Latest update I have is that the area in NW TX and SW OK is already getting severe ice with a multitude of wreacks and considerable power outages along the I44 corridor. Yikes! Also, the temperatures in Decatur and Bowie which had popped up a couple of degrees, has now downturned again back to 32F and 29F respectively according to schoolnet sites. So, the temperature forecasts are right on track. Yikes.
So, right now, Sunday looks like the worst day as a stronger impulse and main wave comes in. Keep your fingers crossed that this doesn't end up being "the big one" for North Texas.
A very interesting thing happened to me on my way home early from work (my last day there....didn't want me sticking around and causing trouble for the next few weeks...so I'm on vacation right now). As I got into the north part of Frisco, a wall of fog rapidly approached me and when I drove into it, the temperature dropped and instant 20F!! Yowsa! It gets better. As I turned on Hwy 380 east and caught back up the the front and plunged into the warm sector, all my windows instantly fogged over and I couldn't see a damned thing...even with the windshield wipers on full!! Lots of other folks encountered the same thing and were pulling over. It was nuts!! I quickly hit the heater at full blast and recovered quickly...but it was quite a surprise.
Wow....grab some groceries folks. Leave some PopTarts for me. :-)
So far, an interesting phenomena has been ongoing through this evening. Surface temperatures have remained steady with a few staions actually increasing a degree or two. The reason for this is that the rain is considerably warmer (50F!) than the air in the lowest 1-2 thousand feet. This tends to keep temperatures boosted a few degrees. In fact, this happens alot in North Texas and averts alot of potentially severe ice storms.
However, the air filtering in from Oklahoma is pretty darned cold with upper teens to mid 20's with single digits in Nebraska. Therefore, I am in strong agreement with the NAM temperature forecasts through Monday. So, at or below freezing is certainly likely for DFW starting in the morning...and a guarantee for areas west and north. This will coincide perfectly for the very heavy precipitation amounts expected. The NAM tries to keep DFW on the northern edge of the core of heaviest precip amounts, but within range of typical devience.
If everything does in fact come together as currently indicated, areas of N TX could see ice of at least 2 inches thick or more coating trees and powerlines by late Sunday. You can certainly expect widespread power outages...and in DFW that spells total and complete chaos. It would take a couple of weeks or more to get everybody restored if this is bad as it *potentially* could be.
But, if we are lucky and the cold air is a tad deeper, we could see more sleet out of this and spare us the devestating ice storm. This also happens quite abit too and spares us the massive power outages. This will have to be closely monitored on an hourly basis and analyze data continuously.
Latest update I have is that the area in NW TX and SW OK is already getting severe ice with a multitude of wreacks and considerable power outages along the I44 corridor. Yikes! Also, the temperatures in Decatur and Bowie which had popped up a couple of degrees, has now downturned again back to 32F and 29F respectively according to schoolnet sites. So, the temperature forecasts are right on track. Yikes.
So, right now, Sunday looks like the worst day as a stronger impulse and main wave comes in. Keep your fingers crossed that this doesn't end up being "the big one" for North Texas.
A very interesting thing happened to me on my way home early from work (my last day there....didn't want me sticking around and causing trouble for the next few weeks...so I'm on vacation right now). As I got into the north part of Frisco, a wall of fog rapidly approached me and when I drove into it, the temperature dropped and instant 20F!! Yowsa! It gets better. As I turned on Hwy 380 east and caught back up the the front and plunged into the warm sector, all my windows instantly fogged over and I couldn't see a damned thing...even with the windshield wipers on full!! Lots of other folks encountered the same thing and were pulling over. It was nuts!! I quickly hit the heater at full blast and recovered quickly...but it was quite a surprise.
Wow....grab some groceries folks. Leave some PopTarts for me. :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 1/12/2007 09:12:00 PM
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