ACK!!

In what is starting off to be another disturbing early-season trend, 2006 is getting off to start eerily similar to the past 10 years around here. Once again, the cap reigns supreme and here in early March, we have a late May type system. I don't like the way this season is starting out. I'm fearing that 2006 will be yet another year where almost all of the action all year long will be north of I-40 and west of the Caprock divide. Shane Adams had mentioned in his recent blog about the drought and it's effects on moisture. I concur.

What happened today? I think four things happened...in order of significance: 1) We were ont the southern side of the mid and upper level jets....subsidence and some slight warming to strengthen the cap. (I keep having to learn this lesson) 2) The moisture wasn't as deep nor as rich as advertised by all of the models. The consistent forecast was 65Td or better. We had 59-63 at best. Overall, out mixing ratios were lower which when plotted on a skew-t for visualization...makes it harder to bust the cap. 3) Just about the time the towering Cu was just about to bust through the cap..along comes a thick cirrus shield developing overhead. I was watching some decent towers trying to go up in Cooke and Montague counties which quickly died down and totally dissipated when the cirrus arrived. 4) Dryline convergence was weaker than expected.

The RUC really failed today big time...just to teach us all a lesson that yes, it is still just a model. :-) Even the NAM was breaking out some precip south of the Red River. As the human part of the equation, I wasn't alone in missing this one. The OUN and FWD area forecast discussions were hitting on it pretty good. The SPC was too with their strong wording in the outlooks backed up by another strongly worded MCD that extended well south of I-40 and into N TX. The consensus was at least a few isolated supercells anywhere between I-40 to I-20. Heck, the RUC with each successive run kept hitting the precip forecast harder and stronger from I-40 into N TX along the dryline. Usually by 18z, it's pretty darned reliable and I bit on it big time....hook line and sinker. :-)

Oh well...a nice drive to Ardmore. I stopped by Whitesboro to have dinner with my sister and niece which was fun...so not a wasted trip at all. It just kind of sucks to have two big whopping bust days in a row. But, that's chasing....and a way of life for chasers that live south of I-40. It used to irk the heck out of me....not anymore. You get used to it. I guess I'll have to wait for my chasecation later this season to actually see the good storms up in KS and NE and E CO.

And one more thing...AVOID I-35 NEAR THE RED RIVER!!!! It starts about 10 miles north of the Red River and southward to it. It's narrowed down to one lane (was last year too) and brings traffic to a very slow crawl for miles. You'll be there for 30-90 minutes depending on traffic flow and congestion. What a wonderful thing to do for a MAJOR INTERSTATE HIGHWAY..the artery for NAFTA. That's some real idiocy at work there. I'll spare ya'll my rant. LOL!! It's this way either direction. take the "Illinois Bend" bridge to the west or cut over to 377. Based on the progress in the past year, they'll still be screwing around for another year at the very least.