CHASE!!! (The Sequal)

1745z UPDATE: From SPC 1630z outlook: "THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE SLY -- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW LESS INTENSE -- FURTHER S ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO N TX...SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES
ARE ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS."
OH MY!!!

It's nice to see the models get inline with a more westward solution that I've been ranting about. The NAM is still trying to rush things too far east. The 12z RUC has the right idea...and I wish the SPC would at least start taking a look at it instead of regurgitating the NAM output for Day 1 stuff.

Now that I've tipped over a sacred cow (if you know what cow tipping is...that's funny right thare), here are my thoughts.

I'm still sticking with a Duncan OK to Jacksboro TX for initiation according to the RUC at 21Z where it keeps that convection through 00Z. This is a classic looking setup of a stalling or quasi-stationary dryline with a couple of isolated cells rooting along it and themselves remaining more stationary. This does all sorts of crazy stuff to storm-relative parameters. :-) With a more isolated storm mode, I'm getting serious storm wood just looking at it.

Moderate CAPE values over 2000 and even approaching 3000 will provide plenty of octane. More importantly, the severe parameters for potential tornadic supercells are zeroed in on S OK near Big Red. I'll outline them:

0-2km Lapse Rates: 8-9C/km nosing into the area.
0-3km MLCAPE: 100j/kg
0-1km Positive Shear: 30 knots
0-3km CAPE: 225j/Kg
0-3km EHI: 3.0
0-3km SRH: 150-225
0-3km Shear: 50 knots
ML LCL: 1200-1400m (a tad high...but not outrageous)
ML LFC: 1600m (a very small spread from LCL)

(from Earl Barker's great site http://wxcaster.com/smallfiles_central_svr.htm)

The 12Z NAM is trying to show similar parameters by 00Z over DFW and similar precipitation pattern. It helps verify the RUC. :-) Speaking of which...the 15Z is jsut rolling in and it is still initiating convection along my target area by 12Z....even stronger.

Overall, I expect at least a couple of long lived, slow moving tornadic supercells over the Red River Valley region today. DFW to just north of Ardmore needs to really be on guard this evening. In fact, the whole dryline will be lighting up today, but this particluar region seems to be the bullseye target. Being on the southern fringe of the upper and mid level jets will work against a more violent tornado threat....at least typically. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out today.