Moving right along......

Intersting note. As of 21z, Wink is reporting a temperature of 94F with a dewpoint of 2F. With a station pressure of 1007mb, that's 3% relative humidity! Dryline indeed. :-) As of 22z, unfortunately, my target area is socked in with thick clouds. latest RUC progs are showing better parameters a little further south west of OKC around Geary/Weatherford/El Reno where skies have cleared and some nice cu forming...but not much in the way of surface convergence which is worrysome. The actual convergence and true dryline is further west along the TX/OK border. The RUC is still breaking out precip further east...perhaps along 850mb convergence? I'm definitely pulling my tornado prediction. :-)

Finally....the first chase of the season!! As a career-driven sort of guy, I'm working today :-( So I'll be armchair chasing and perhaps some nowcasting (the next best thing to actually being there). Looking at the latest 12z models NAM/RUC and doing an eyeball analysis of the surface plots, my target area today is bounded by Wakita, Alva, and Medicine Lodge with initiation just west of there.

With a more westerly component to the mid level winds and based on both the NAM and RUC precip pattern, it looks like a good day to get a couple of good storms more isolated (at least a tail-end charlie) with some possible deviant movers to the ESE. Of course, if there are any deviant movers, the SREH values would increase significantly. I know....there's not enough CAPE there to support any strong deviant movement (at least that's what I remember reading somewhere).

A couple of tornadoes look likely to me today...particulary with any right turners. Should be some pretty good hailers for the core punchers out there. :-) Good luck to all that are able to venture out.

For tomorrow? The NAM seems to be getting ahold of the "North Texas Curse" as an initialization parameter quite nicely. LOL!! It is smacking the dewpoints and moving the focus westward. I'll worry about that in the morning though. After this weekend though, winter looks to make a return visit for awhile. :-( However, after the past few seasons of a "hot and dry" March followed by a dismal chases season south of Kansas, maybe this is a good sign. I know...I know...but it gives me eternal hope of chasing again south of I-40 and east of the caprock sometime this year. :-)