Saturday..TESSA or Chasing? (and a nod to VW)

I've been eyeing the model trends for a Saturday setup. Right off the bat, the jet streaks are just north of North Central Texas. That's already a big negative being on the anticyclonic side....although not in the right exit region...so not too bad. But, it's close enough so that any slight trend to the south would upgrade things in a hurry. The NAM is still showing some 700-500mb VVs.

At the surface, a warm front lifts northward to around the Red River/DFW vicinity by afternoon. There appears to be some pretty juicy dewpoints and good depth of moisture to the south of the warm front and SFC-850mb trajectories would favor good advection of the octane. Mid 60Td appears likely with 10-12Td at 850. SFC winds will be backed to the SE at 10-15 knots. 850mb S/SSE with a LLJ immediately to the E 25-35 knots. 700mb will be SSW with a good core of 40-50 knots moving through. 500mb SW at 50-60 knots. Does that vertical wind profile induce any heavy panting yet? ;-)

I'll be watching this trend carefully with the next model runs. The current 12Z I'm looking at is trending optimistic from the 00Z. Plus, it's in my own backyard and on a Saturday. Since I've got a lawncare service handling the mowing/fertilizer/weeds this year, it's one less chore to worry about. I still prefer to wage war against the fire ants myself with extreme prejudice. LOL!!

If things look to peter out and fizzle (after all...this is North Texas..ha), I'll attend the TESSA festivities. Every year, Martin Lisius and his associates keep making it even better. For more info, click here. I'll likely be there starting that morning and monitor the chase potential along with everybody else. My "associates" from the "Tulsa Mafia" will also be paying ther respects as they seek to expand their empire into North Texas which I'll be overseeing from my elitist ivory pedestal...all coordinated from within a super-duper-secret discussion list. ROFL!! (That's a joke folks...as in humor..spoof..satire. Chill out.) ;-)

Speaking of humor, I've got to stop here and tip my hat to the new Volkswagon commercials. You know...the "Unpimp ze auto" ones. It's rare to see something original, clever, unique, and I think pretty damned funny. I love the "gang sign flashing" for VW. LOL! I'm a fan. Interestingly, if you think you recognize the guy, his name is Peter Stromare. Want to see the videos? Click here. Maybe they'll do a couple of chase vehicles next. ;-)