2006 Inaugural Chase - Update #2
It's good to see some good consensus in the models for this upcoming system. I'm not at all trusting of them this season yet as to surface biasis, so I'm not going to fret too much over those details as far as moisture, instability and precipitation until the day before. Once upon a time, the ETA almost always underforecast dewpoints even 48 hours in advance. I have no information to make such assumptions with the NAM as the new season approaches. So, I'll worry about that as time draws nearer and look for trends with each successive run.
With THAT disclaimer out of the way, I do really like the vertical wind profiles for the event shaping up for Saturday. Anytime the mid and upper level winds are progged to be from the west perpendicular to a dryline, I'm going to pay serious attention to that setup. The NAM is also showing a more backed surface to 850mb flow with good 0-1km and 0-3km veering and shear profiles with WSW/SW winds at 700mb. The problem with that though is the higher LCLs as a result of the meager forecast dewpoints won't be able to take advantage of that. If however we realize better dewpoints, things get more interesting. Even with the current NAM depiction, CAPE values are still enough to get some good storms out of this setup. The lapse rates should be pretty decent too with strong BL insolation. Another factor to consider is the precip forecast and configuartion offered by the NAM. We could certainly have an outflow boundary to play with as well.
I would have to go back and verify this of course, but this setup sorta reminds me of an early April chase I had back in 1998 (don't laugh...I was just a newbie stormchaser...and still am...LOL):
http://www.texastailchaser.com/chases/vernon040698/main.htm
Bring on more model runs!! :-) I still plan on chasing this one at this point if for no other reason to see what convection looks like again..it's been awhile. ;-) I've gotta work on getting the vehicle geared up which thankfully won't take much since I left most everything intact....gotta get rid of this damned bronchitis first.
With THAT disclaimer out of the way, I do really like the vertical wind profiles for the event shaping up for Saturday. Anytime the mid and upper level winds are progged to be from the west perpendicular to a dryline, I'm going to pay serious attention to that setup. The NAM is also showing a more backed surface to 850mb flow with good 0-1km and 0-3km veering and shear profiles with WSW/SW winds at 700mb. The problem with that though is the higher LCLs as a result of the meager forecast dewpoints won't be able to take advantage of that. If however we realize better dewpoints, things get more interesting. Even with the current NAM depiction, CAPE values are still enough to get some good storms out of this setup. The lapse rates should be pretty decent too with strong BL insolation. Another factor to consider is the precip forecast and configuartion offered by the NAM. We could certainly have an outflow boundary to play with as well.
I would have to go back and verify this of course, but this setup sorta reminds me of an early April chase I had back in 1998 (don't laugh...I was just a newbie stormchaser...and still am...LOL):
http://www.texastailchaser.com/chases/vernon040698/main.htm
Bring on more model runs!! :-) I still plan on chasing this one at this point if for no other reason to see what convection looks like again..it's been awhile. ;-) I've gotta work on getting the vehicle geared up which thankfully won't take much since I left most everything intact....gotta get rid of this damned bronchitis first.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/01/2006 12:44:00 PM
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