Maybe my first chase of the season?

21z UPDATE: I'm a no-go based on current analysis. Me and thick cirrus canopies just don't get along. :-) The dewpoints as I feared earlier continue to drop as that bone-dry 850mb airmass advects northward and mixes. The current instability axis is very narrow and the cap is strong per 18z sounding and excellent SPC MCD. I'm thinking that when storms do form in the next couple of hours, they will be more elevated above the capping inversion. We'll see if they get rooted in the boundary layer later tonight as they move eastward which will be interesting overnight per the 20z SPC outlook. The show will come to me at home. :-0 As I type, I already see a storm forming within the embedded precip shield near Throckmorton....already too far for me AND embedded in a large precip shield. Blech.

17Z UPDATE (for Texas...NOT KS/OK): It seems that the moisture will be able to hang in there today per the latest RUC data. I think what I had missed this morning is moisture convergence at 850mb and a little better moisture from SW TX (that's pretty odd...no doubt). Anyway, the RUC shows better mixing ratios at 850mb indicative of better depth of moisture and as a result is showing a little better instabilities and LCLs. Still....I can see that bone-dry air on visible satellite moving northward and that worries me. What I did get right is some faster response by the BL winds (SFC-850mb) that the RUC is now advertising by 00Z. Although still not a good tornadic profile, it's definitely an improvement. If lucky, we'll get a couple of brief spinups during the daylight hours. It's still showing convergence and convection breaking out by 21Z from just west of Ardmore down to Brownwood within the axis of better instabilities. I see no reason to argue with that and will go with it. I'm hoping to leave abit before 3pm and west towards that area. The SPC outlook at 1630z sounded a little more scary for overnight tornadoes close to home. It looks like chase hangover for me tomorrow. LOL! I love it.

Looking at the models this morning (NAM/RUC), I'm not looking for tornadoes at all. However, the SPC discussion was pretty interesting with regards to an overnight nocturnal tornado threat close to home if storms remain rooted and move into a higher instability axis and better SREH.

Deep moisture is going to be a serious problem today. Looking at the 850mb analysis, there is ALOT of dry air all over the GOM source region (BRO 00Z sounding was -9C Td at 850mb..yikes!). The more SWerly trajectories today at that level certainly won't help. I'm a little skeptical of the forecast 10-12Td at 850mb for N TX into E half of OK later today. It also begs for the potential of mixing out surface dewpoints. I've been burned before in this type of setup where the models are overly optomistic with dewpoints only to see them drop steadily lower during the afternoon. This trend will have to be watched for today. to complicate things, I've got to question the advertised 850mb and even surface forecasts as I'll detail below.

Despite that, the upper dynamics look pretty impressive...particularly after 00Z. 250mb jet noses into the area about that time bringing good divergence and abit of diffluence spreading out over N TX. The same can be said of 500mb with a 70+ streak rounding the base of the trough aimed right at N TX. With such strong dynamics and PVA hanging out further west, I'm really wondering if the surface and 850mb wind fields will be as slow to respond? I certainly don't have a met degree, but I've seen this numerous times where BL winds and pressures respond faster to such intense energy from upstream dynamics. I can't wait for the 12z runs of the models to see how this is resolved by the models. Our marginal looking setup could change abruptly with more backed 850mb flow...although moisture will still be an issue in my opinion. We'll see...just something to watch for.

Regardless, the bigger show will be after 00Z. I expect to see some pretty vicious hailers with this one and good lightning producers (it seems that way anyhow with very steep lapse rates and drier air). I certainly will be heading out from work around 3pm which means storms have to be within driving distance....another caveat for me personally today. Good luck to everybody going out and hopefully storms will erupt with a little daylight left. I'll be glad when DST rolls around. :-)

Does anybody else hear an annoying, buzzing sound? Hmmm...guess that's coming from one of the drama blogs of my fan club members' continued obsession with me. LOL!!!! I rest my case. Ya'll need some considerable professional help...seriously. Go get a social life...like a GF or something to occupy your overly-abundant spare time...ok? Your cat would appreciate it. Just some friendly advice from somebody who cares. ;-)