Today, beyond, and 4/29

Today is a very interesting setup for the Panhandles. The SPC has no severe outlook for us likely due to model runs. However, a dryline sharpens up today in the western parts with an increasingly better setup down to the 380 corridor around Post, TX south and southeast of Lubbock. But, for something within range I can chase, I'm looking at Muleshoe to Plainview to Amarillo today. In fact, this area, synoptically speaking, is akin to an outflow boundary setup. If we get enough insolation today...AND the cap can break, then very high 0-3km helicity values will favor some pretty good chasing around these parts even with marginal instabilities.

But, there is considerable uncertainty of surface based initiation. A weak impulse is advertised to come through early in the day creating weak subsidence over the dryline. I can't identify it this morning as of yet, so am not all that confident in those solutions. However, being on the south side of the mid level jet is also conducive to some weak subsidence. However, models do indicate the nose of upper jets to shift southward today into the region, so this will work to our benefit.

Bottom line, strong insolation is needed in my opinion to give us a shot at busting the cap. My gut instinct says it will bust and produce at least one or two isolated storms. The convergence along the dryline is very strong and will certainly favor getting a parcel through the cap somewhere along it today and sustaining it.

For the next 7 days, the models are flip flopping around with each run. Confidence is very low on any solution right now until I see some better continuity and agreement.

Back to 4/29, I finally reviewed my video footage and was actually impressed!! It is much cooler video than I thought it would be. Thank the storm gods for telephoto lenses!! :-) The video confirms what a truly unique tornado this was regarding it's structure and behavior all while two big windmills churn in the foreground. It ends with two tornadoes with one being a long, snaky one of the dying larger tornado which really dances around while what appears to be a second tornado to the right. I've not seen any other video out there like it. I can't wait to get it mixed down and online to share with my friends. It is an excellent companion to the awesome up-close-and-personal video of Jay, Ben and David. So, sometimes getting stuck miles away isn't such a bad thing. ;-)