Another Dud May Shaping Up?
After a major disappointing week for me and missing the the tornadoes on the biggest two days of the season so far, the medium range forecast models are now advertising some pretty dismal forecasts out through day 10 and beyond. Yeah, I know all about "model accuracy" in that time frame...blah blah blah....I have chased and forecast for a few years now. ;-) But, the solutions are persistent and when combined with extrapolating the pattern from the day 7-10 range..AND the spaghetti plots...AND the ECMWF with the GFS...it looks rather dismal. But then, we should all be used to Mays that for the most part end up crapping out for at least half of the month.
This is not to say some isolated opportunities won't pop up here and there...especially across KS and NE where the jet stream will reside for awhile. But the overall synoptic pattern isn't very conducive for chasing opportunities...especially if the GFS is correct beyond Day 10 (and a very persistant forecast at that) of strong NW flow aloft driving big, bulldozing fronts well into the GOM. Sound familiar?
Maybe I'm still in a very negative mind frame and the models will change significantly in the next few days. If not, then May 2009 will be another in a long series of Mays in the past 10 years that sputtered and choked. We shall see. But it certainly seems like a golden opportunity lies ahead to pursue some other hobbies with alot less frustration. :-)
This is not to say some isolated opportunities won't pop up here and there...especially across KS and NE where the jet stream will reside for awhile. But the overall synoptic pattern isn't very conducive for chasing opportunities...especially if the GFS is correct beyond Day 10 (and a very persistant forecast at that) of strong NW flow aloft driving big, bulldozing fronts well into the GOM. Sound familiar?
Maybe I'm still in a very negative mind frame and the models will change significantly in the next few days. If not, then May 2009 will be another in a long series of Mays in the past 10 years that sputtered and choked. We shall see. But it certainly seems like a golden opportunity lies ahead to pursue some other hobbies with alot less frustration. :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 5/02/2009 07:56:00 AM
1 Comments:
Hey Steve. I agree that it is time to concentrate on new hobbies. I have also been heavily disappointed this week, especially since I have been in the "right" places. Yesterday's disappointment down in Haskell County sealed the deal. I will be chasing once more this year, to take a friend that has offered to pay because he wants to go so bad, but after that I am done for a good long while.
Post a Comment
<< Home