4/25 Report and Today's Action
Yesterday was quite a surprise for many forecasters as the expected tornado event across W OK didn't materialize. Although I was one of many hyping it up, I did so in very good company with the SPC guys as well as many others. An old lesson of Ma Nature doing her own thing despite mankinds best technologies to figure her out certainly was reinforced yesterday. Man will never fully understand such a complex creature as woman. :-)
What happened? In my opinion, three problems.
1) Meager mid and upper level storm-relative winds. This was allowing the cores of the storms to dump very close to the updraft. It also didn't help that the storm motion was the same as the wind direction at those levels either.
2) Dewpoints were scoured out. I noticed on the GR3 OK mesonet that dewpoints had generally fallen to 57-59 across a big chunk of SW OK and NW TX. Models had forecast lower 60 dewpoints which would have gone a long way in aiding lower LCLs and critical 0-3km CAPE.
3) Several storms across SW OK erupted which likely had at least a small part in stealing some of the thunder (pun intended) from the storms erupting along the stationary front in NW OK.
The storm I and about 100 others were on starting out in Wheeler county tried hard to tornado on several occasions only to undercut itself with strong outflow. The rotation was definitely within the cloud base, but it could not extend to the ground because of the outflow. I was close enough to confirm this. :-)
In fact, Chris Nuttall and I encountered some insane surface mesocyclonic circulation around Mobeetie. While we were watching the storm with S winds, just about 1/4 mile to our south, dust was getting kicked up by west winds. As the outflow passed us, winds turned NW. As we headed east, the winds quickly shifted to south again and were quite strong and gusty. It definitely got our attention!!!
North of Reydon, OK just south of Hwy 33, the storm reached it's best organization and came within a prairie dog's hair of producing a very nice white tornado. The rotation and chaos in the storm base and attendent wall cloud and scud was very strong and violent. I have never seen such intensity end up not producing at the very least a brief tornado. It was definitely a helluva spectacle without a doubt. I've got video of it I'll post later when I have time.
Other than that, stayed with it as it cycled down and then back up into a nice HP supercell with good visual structure NW of Leedey. Dave Fick and I watched a nice attempt to organize a rotating wall cloud at one point only to have the outflow undercut it again. Dave suggested that the storms further south along with the dewpoints being a few degrees lower than forecast were culprits which I totally agree with.
After a futile attempt in lightning photography, Chris Nuttall and myself embarked on the journey back to Amarillo. We stopped and ate McDonald's in Pampa and just as we were getting ready to leave, I popped on ST to check reports from the day and noticed a post mentioning that Robert Hall was stuck in Pampa because of a vehicle breakdown. I picked him and his fiance up and headed to Amarillo so they could get a rental car. It was good to visit with an old friend I hadn't seen in years as well as being able to help a brutha out. We marveled at the odds of everything working out like it did in the end.
It was also nice to see some old friends Dave Fick and Scott Eubanks yesterday too....especially Dave since I had no idea or expectation he would have made the drive from Houston. I look up and there he is! LOL!! Saw Jason Boggs briefly too and finally met Ben Holcomb in person! Saw David Drummond, Scott Bennett, Jay McCoy and Jeff Bernard as well. It was literally a big SDS party under the meso! How awesome is that?
As far as the massive hoardes of chasers, there were quite a few, but once again, everybody was courteous and conscious of everybody else out there. I did see one stupid idiot pull right in front of another chaser without even looking. I don't think they even knew he was there bearing down on them. Luckily, the oncoming chaser had slowed down or else this would have been a major wreck. The vehicle in question had at least 3 and maybe 4 people in it and plates I didn't recognize. So, I was not able to identify this moron. Geeze, why in the hell somebody wouldn't at least look over their shoulder before pulling out into traffic totally mystifies me. Anyway, this was the ONLY incident I witnessed that caused any concern. Remarkable given how many of us were out there.
So...today...hmmmmmm.....
I'm just waking up and already the action is getting primed to erupt in the TX PH close to Amarillo. I'm tired, but need to get going for an early show today. The thing we have going for us today are a little better surface moisture with Td in the lower 60's at least and better 0-6 and 0-8km shear. The dryline should also be pretty sharp today as well. The big question mark is how much the boundary layer flow will back today.
The models are at odds once again with this critically important feature. The RUC isn't as backed as the NAM, but still maintains enough 0-1 and 0-3km veering to get my attention and think that tornadoes are still likely today per the SPC outlook. The instability appears to be better too, especially across the NW parts of OK where the dryline will be the sharpest along with it bulging across that area.
So, where is my target today? I think McLean, TX for now, but eyeing a little to the south towards Childress. I'd like to get away from the massive hoardes of chasers that I encountered yesterday. Plus, storm motions would keep my egress route close to I-40 so I can get back to Amarillo at a decent time to start another work week tomorrow. I was feeling abit less than 100% yesterday for some reason, but I think it was just fatigue. So, pulling a late-nighter for me isn't an option this evening since other chase opportunies are ahead this week.
But, I also like some of the parameters I see shaping up down around Childress based on the 12z RUC run. There is some suggestion of pehraps a meso low forming down there with some locally backed flow. Such mesoscale features are of course a gamble based on model runs, but it certainly would make sense. And again for selfish reasons, I'd like to enjoy the chase without the added stress of 100 or more other chase vehicles to contend with. No offense. ;-)
I'm trying to get ready to head out the door, so no pics from yesterday. I'll try to catch up on everything sometime this week. As usual, I will be live streaming today, so check out my LIVE CHASE PAGE.
What happened? In my opinion, three problems.
1) Meager mid and upper level storm-relative winds. This was allowing the cores of the storms to dump very close to the updraft. It also didn't help that the storm motion was the same as the wind direction at those levels either.
2) Dewpoints were scoured out. I noticed on the GR3 OK mesonet that dewpoints had generally fallen to 57-59 across a big chunk of SW OK and NW TX. Models had forecast lower 60 dewpoints which would have gone a long way in aiding lower LCLs and critical 0-3km CAPE.
3) Several storms across SW OK erupted which likely had at least a small part in stealing some of the thunder (pun intended) from the storms erupting along the stationary front in NW OK.
The storm I and about 100 others were on starting out in Wheeler county tried hard to tornado on several occasions only to undercut itself with strong outflow. The rotation was definitely within the cloud base, but it could not extend to the ground because of the outflow. I was close enough to confirm this. :-)
In fact, Chris Nuttall and I encountered some insane surface mesocyclonic circulation around Mobeetie. While we were watching the storm with S winds, just about 1/4 mile to our south, dust was getting kicked up by west winds. As the outflow passed us, winds turned NW. As we headed east, the winds quickly shifted to south again and were quite strong and gusty. It definitely got our attention!!!
North of Reydon, OK just south of Hwy 33, the storm reached it's best organization and came within a prairie dog's hair of producing a very nice white tornado. The rotation and chaos in the storm base and attendent wall cloud and scud was very strong and violent. I have never seen such intensity end up not producing at the very least a brief tornado. It was definitely a helluva spectacle without a doubt. I've got video of it I'll post later when I have time.
Other than that, stayed with it as it cycled down and then back up into a nice HP supercell with good visual structure NW of Leedey. Dave Fick and I watched a nice attempt to organize a rotating wall cloud at one point only to have the outflow undercut it again. Dave suggested that the storms further south along with the dewpoints being a few degrees lower than forecast were culprits which I totally agree with.
After a futile attempt in lightning photography, Chris Nuttall and myself embarked on the journey back to Amarillo. We stopped and ate McDonald's in Pampa and just as we were getting ready to leave, I popped on ST to check reports from the day and noticed a post mentioning that Robert Hall was stuck in Pampa because of a vehicle breakdown. I picked him and his fiance up and headed to Amarillo so they could get a rental car. It was good to visit with an old friend I hadn't seen in years as well as being able to help a brutha out. We marveled at the odds of everything working out like it did in the end.
It was also nice to see some old friends Dave Fick and Scott Eubanks yesterday too....especially Dave since I had no idea or expectation he would have made the drive from Houston. I look up and there he is! LOL!! Saw Jason Boggs briefly too and finally met Ben Holcomb in person! Saw David Drummond, Scott Bennett, Jay McCoy and Jeff Bernard as well. It was literally a big SDS party under the meso! How awesome is that?
As far as the massive hoardes of chasers, there were quite a few, but once again, everybody was courteous and conscious of everybody else out there. I did see one stupid idiot pull right in front of another chaser without even looking. I don't think they even knew he was there bearing down on them. Luckily, the oncoming chaser had slowed down or else this would have been a major wreck. The vehicle in question had at least 3 and maybe 4 people in it and plates I didn't recognize. So, I was not able to identify this moron. Geeze, why in the hell somebody wouldn't at least look over their shoulder before pulling out into traffic totally mystifies me. Anyway, this was the ONLY incident I witnessed that caused any concern. Remarkable given how many of us were out there.
So...today...hmmmmmm.....
I'm just waking up and already the action is getting primed to erupt in the TX PH close to Amarillo. I'm tired, but need to get going for an early show today. The thing we have going for us today are a little better surface moisture with Td in the lower 60's at least and better 0-6 and 0-8km shear. The dryline should also be pretty sharp today as well. The big question mark is how much the boundary layer flow will back today.
The models are at odds once again with this critically important feature. The RUC isn't as backed as the NAM, but still maintains enough 0-1 and 0-3km veering to get my attention and think that tornadoes are still likely today per the SPC outlook. The instability appears to be better too, especially across the NW parts of OK where the dryline will be the sharpest along with it bulging across that area.
So, where is my target today? I think McLean, TX for now, but eyeing a little to the south towards Childress. I'd like to get away from the massive hoardes of chasers that I encountered yesterday. Plus, storm motions would keep my egress route close to I-40 so I can get back to Amarillo at a decent time to start another work week tomorrow. I was feeling abit less than 100% yesterday for some reason, but I think it was just fatigue. So, pulling a late-nighter for me isn't an option this evening since other chase opportunies are ahead this week.
But, I also like some of the parameters I see shaping up down around Childress based on the 12z RUC run. There is some suggestion of pehraps a meso low forming down there with some locally backed flow. Such mesoscale features are of course a gamble based on model runs, but it certainly would make sense. And again for selfish reasons, I'd like to enjoy the chase without the added stress of 100 or more other chase vehicles to contend with. No offense. ;-)
I'm trying to get ready to head out the door, so no pics from yesterday. I'll try to catch up on everything sometime this week. As usual, I will be live streaming today, so check out my LIVE CHASE PAGE.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/26/2009 08:25:00 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home