Today 5/15

6 years ago today, I enjoyed a most incredible chase near Stratford, Texas. This is why I moved out here. :-)



As far as today, I will be chasing, but not sure on my strategy. I have alot of concerns for the cold front coming into the N TX Panhandles later today. It appears to be "too strong" with forecast SFC-850mb winds behind it up to 30 knots by 00Z. It's not like the other cold fronts the past couple of days which produced impressive tornadic supercells along it. I am concerned with the front moving too fast and undercutting storms. In addition, such fronts create ALOT of strong linear forcing usually resulting in a quick explosion of a squall line of linear storms. This in turn helps promote the front's progress even more and quickly developing a shallow outflow pool out ahead of the storms. So, unless I see something to indicate otherwise, the front is not likely to be my play today.

So, that leaves the dryline which I actually like. Models indicate temperatures remaining near or below 90F today with lower to mid 60 dewpoints. While not within my <20F dewpoint depression rule, it's close enough. The models are keeping strong instabilities ahead of it with more capping equating to more isolated storms. The 0-1km and 0-3km EHI values are also stronger with model suggestions of some locally backing boundary layer flow. It will also be an area of reduced chaser hoardes, something that is increasingly becoming part of my forecast considerations. I'd hate to have Vortex 2 try and commandeer my viewing spots. LOL!!

So, as usual, I'll be monitoring the situation throughout the day and ready to bolt from work around 4. Hopefully that won't be too late! Check out my LIVE CHASE PAGE too when I'm heading into the storm. I'm actually turning the stream off unless I have something worthy of showing. It wastes bandwidth and interferes with radar downloads in "thin" data areas. Plus, it's just extremely boring watching the highway. ;-)