Programme: 1) Climax 2) Entr'acte
Based on model runs last evening, I'm gaining optimism for two good chases ahead on Tuesday and Wednesday with a longshot on Thursday. After that, prepare for a lengthy intermission or Entr'acte. (Bet you didn't think a redneck could come up with a fancy word like that...lol)
Tuesday/Wednesday is entirely dependant on busting the cap. I have concerns about that at this point because of the upper air configuration still imposing some semblence of subsidence over the region and just how much surface convergence there will be in relation to that. I believe Wednesday will have the better potential for busting the cap, but again, I'm not very confident on model solutions at this point. Hopefully, runs this afternoon and evening will shed some more light on the developing situation.
The *potential* is there however for anything that does pop to be severe and likely supercellular. Tuesday looks like a classic isolated supercell setup along a dryline bulge probably setting up in the NE parts of the PH (and attracting 1000's of chasers to one storm...ugh). Wednesday has a strong potential for a storm to erupt along a slow moving and perhaps stationary frontal boundary which can be quite a show. But, forecast mid level flow will be less than 30 knots....hopefully that will improve. Thursday has a real long shot potential, but more on that since my confidence even 36 hours out is low at this point.
Beyond Thursday, prepare for a lengthy down period as models continue to insist on a July upper air pattern to take hold. This is starting to become quite annoying each year watching the atmosphere change seasons like this in May. At least with fronts plowing into the GOM, it won't be oppressively hot for any length of time. Excellent for some outdoor activities I have planned. :-)
There are some faint signs of hope flickering at the end of the tunnel with the past three runs of the long range models. But, confidence is very low that far out considering we have to endure a major shift in the upper air pattern first. There is no telling how long the "doomsday" pattern will establish itself. I've found that a large upper ridge setting up over the central part of the country usually doesn't go away very easily. Hoepfully this one will be the exception and die a quick death and allow something more resembling May to retun. We shall see.
Until then...chase on!
Tuesday/Wednesday is entirely dependant on busting the cap. I have concerns about that at this point because of the upper air configuration still imposing some semblence of subsidence over the region and just how much surface convergence there will be in relation to that. I believe Wednesday will have the better potential for busting the cap, but again, I'm not very confident on model solutions at this point. Hopefully, runs this afternoon and evening will shed some more light on the developing situation.
The *potential* is there however for anything that does pop to be severe and likely supercellular. Tuesday looks like a classic isolated supercell setup along a dryline bulge probably setting up in the NE parts of the PH (and attracting 1000's of chasers to one storm...ugh). Wednesday has a strong potential for a storm to erupt along a slow moving and perhaps stationary frontal boundary which can be quite a show. But, forecast mid level flow will be less than 30 knots....hopefully that will improve. Thursday has a real long shot potential, but more on that since my confidence even 36 hours out is low at this point.
Beyond Thursday, prepare for a lengthy down period as models continue to insist on a July upper air pattern to take hold. This is starting to become quite annoying each year watching the atmosphere change seasons like this in May. At least with fronts plowing into the GOM, it won't be oppressively hot for any length of time. Excellent for some outdoor activities I have planned. :-)
There are some faint signs of hope flickering at the end of the tunnel with the past three runs of the long range models. But, confidence is very low that far out considering we have to endure a major shift in the upper air pattern first. There is no telling how long the "doomsday" pattern will establish itself. I've found that a large upper ridge setting up over the central part of the country usually doesn't go away very easily. Hoepfully this one will be the exception and die a quick death and allow something more resembling May to retun. We shall see.
Until then...chase on!
posted by Steve Miller TX at 5/11/2009 06:42:00 AM
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