Great Forecast Discussion
Real quick as I get a small break in the holiday festivities, I had to post this nice discussion from the NWS Amarillo today. Maybe it would be a good idea sometime to try and visit the NWS offices personally on Christmas Day and drop off some goodies or something else to show our appreciation for their working on a day that most of us are fortunate to have off and spend with our loved ones. (And, Shiloh, I'll write back in a couple of days).
ISSUED 350 PM CST MON DEC 24 2007/ DISCUSSION...
IT IS THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHRISTMAS AND ONCE AGAIN THIS YEAR
THE NWS IS FORECASTING ON THE METEOROLOGICAL FRONTIER.
THE MODELS ARE IN DISCORD WITH THIS TROF ON THE WAY...
AND WE ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF SNOW IS IN PLAY.
THE NAM IS IN A HURRY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS SLOW.
WHICH ONE TO BELIEVE AND DO I CONTINUE WITH SNOW?
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SURFACE WINDS WON/T HELP BECAUSE THERE ISN/T ANY BACKING.
WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND NO HOPES FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO FALL FROM ALOFT TO DOWN BELOW.
WITH SO MANY DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL TO MODEL,
I FOLLOWED THE GFS SO I WON/T HAVE TO TWADDLE.
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION REQUIRED SOME CHANGES...
I ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND EXPANDED DIURNAL RANGES.
WARMER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING THAT THE GFS MIGHT SUGGEST.
POP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPPED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
30S NORTH TO 20S SOUTH AS THE GRIDS WILL DISPLAY.
WITH THIS FAST MOVING STORM AND THE DYNAMICS GOING NORTH...
ONE INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL IN THE GRIDS WILL GO FORTH.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL.
THE AVERAGE OF GUIDANCE SEEMS LIKELY TO RULE.
SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EAST...
THE TIMING OF THE TROF WILL DETERMINE WHEN THEY CEASE.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH JUST A BIT OF CRITIQUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AND PRECIP CHANCES DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS.
FOR THE LAST FIVE DAYS OF THE FORECAST THINGS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE
BESIDES...THE STORM FOR LATE CHRISTMAS LEFT A PRETTY FULL PLATE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SOME OF THE FIELDS...
WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT MOTHER NATURE MIGHT YIELD.
TO THOSE WHO MIGHT COMPLAIN THAT THIS DISCUSSION IS IN RHYME...
MY APOLOGIES TO Y/ALL...I AM HAVING A GOOD TIME.
FOR WE AT THE NWS HAVE TO WORK ON CHRISTMAS DAY
AND I TRY TO HAVE FUN WHEN I CANNOT GO OUT AND PLAY.
REGARDLESS OF THAT...WE WILL BE SITTING RIGHT HERE
KEEPING OUR EYE ON THE WEATHER...BE IT CALM OR SEVERE.
TO CLOSE OUT THIS DISCUSSION...AND I KNOW I AM RIGHT...
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM NWS AMARILLO AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT!
-JORDAN
ISSUED 350 PM CST MON DEC 24 2007/ DISCUSSION...
IT IS THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHRISTMAS AND ONCE AGAIN THIS YEAR
THE NWS IS FORECASTING ON THE METEOROLOGICAL FRONTIER.
THE MODELS ARE IN DISCORD WITH THIS TROF ON THE WAY...
AND WE ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF SNOW IS IN PLAY.
THE NAM IS IN A HURRY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS SLOW.
WHICH ONE TO BELIEVE AND DO I CONTINUE WITH SNOW?
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SURFACE WINDS WON/T HELP BECAUSE THERE ISN/T ANY BACKING.
WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND NO HOPES FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO FALL FROM ALOFT TO DOWN BELOW.
WITH SO MANY DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL TO MODEL,
I FOLLOWED THE GFS SO I WON/T HAVE TO TWADDLE.
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION REQUIRED SOME CHANGES...
I ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND EXPANDED DIURNAL RANGES.
WARMER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING THAT THE GFS MIGHT SUGGEST.
POP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPPED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
30S NORTH TO 20S SOUTH AS THE GRIDS WILL DISPLAY.
WITH THIS FAST MOVING STORM AND THE DYNAMICS GOING NORTH...
ONE INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL IN THE GRIDS WILL GO FORTH.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL.
THE AVERAGE OF GUIDANCE SEEMS LIKELY TO RULE.
SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EAST...
THE TIMING OF THE TROF WILL DETERMINE WHEN THEY CEASE.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH JUST A BIT OF CRITIQUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AND PRECIP CHANCES DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS.
FOR THE LAST FIVE DAYS OF THE FORECAST THINGS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE
BESIDES...THE STORM FOR LATE CHRISTMAS LEFT A PRETTY FULL PLATE.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SOME OF THE FIELDS...
WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT MOTHER NATURE MIGHT YIELD.
TO THOSE WHO MIGHT COMPLAIN THAT THIS DISCUSSION IS IN RHYME...
MY APOLOGIES TO Y/ALL...I AM HAVING A GOOD TIME.
FOR WE AT THE NWS HAVE TO WORK ON CHRISTMAS DAY
AND I TRY TO HAVE FUN WHEN I CANNOT GO OUT AND PLAY.
REGARDLESS OF THAT...WE WILL BE SITTING RIGHT HERE
KEEPING OUR EYE ON THE WEATHER...BE IT CALM OR SEVERE.
TO CLOSE OUT THIS DISCUSSION...AND I KNOW I AM RIGHT...
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM NWS AMARILLO AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT!
-JORDAN
posted by Steve Miller TX at 12/24/2007 06:31:00 PM
5 Comments:
I love NWS guys. They rock.
Gotta love Jordan. he writes these every year it seems. Too bad hardly anybody else noticed it.
Looks like we are quiet for the rest of the year ( a whole 3 days). Lets hope 2008 will be a banner year for chasing. 2007 was bad. At least until early May when it died.
Thats awesome! LOL!! Good to see someone with a sense of humor..
Happy New Year Steve!!
To Bill Brasky!
Bill Brasky walked into the secret CFDG club in Norman, took Doswell's cowboy hat off..... lit it on fire by rubbing his balls together, then tucked it back under his armpit... and when the fire went out from under his arm, sure as shit, he made himself a fresh tattoo that read "Only sissies make up names like yahoo" ......and it was in Portuguese!
Dear Dr. SDS-
I was wondering if I am suffering from a case of SDS. I see tiny tornadoes while washing my son's bottles. I catch myself staring for hours while watching the water swirl in the bottom. If this is SDS what would you recommend for treatment?
Sincerly-
Bryce's Mommy
You need to call or update at some point. What the heck am I suppose to read???? :o)
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