Horizon Winter
I've been carefully watching the medium range models the past few days. They are in general agreement on tapping into some arctic air and plunging it into West Texas. This appears to happen around Wednesday of next week. Some projections indicate that the TX Panhandle may struggle to get above freezing for a couple of days. The arctic air is definitely on it's way regardless of either model solution.
The more interesting feature is the advertisement of a strong upper trough and possibly an upper low digging down into the SW part of the CONUS. This is where the models diverge abit with the GFS being more progressive and the ECMWF much stronger and deeper. Given the usual tendency of the GFS this far out in underdoing such west coast systems combined with my my preference for the ECMWF in this situation, it is starting to appear that some significant winter weather is in store.
We're still a ways out on this system, so the model solutions are likely to change. Perhaps later this weekend, they will converge better on a solution. I'll update then.
The more interesting feature is the advertisement of a strong upper trough and possibly an upper low digging down into the SW part of the CONUS. This is where the models diverge abit with the GFS being more progressive and the ECMWF much stronger and deeper. Given the usual tendency of the GFS this far out in underdoing such west coast systems combined with my my preference for the ECMWF in this situation, it is starting to appear that some significant winter weather is in store.
We're still a ways out on this system, so the model solutions are likely to change. Perhaps later this weekend, they will converge better on a solution. I'll update then.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 11/15/2007 10:30:00 AM
5 Comments:
I will say snow around here on Thanksgiving is a pretty common event. We are at or below freezing probably 40% of them. Other times its 70 and sunny..lol
I remember bringing Jennfer home from the hospital on Thanksgiving 2days after being born and it was snowing and 25. that was 97.
I wont be stocking up on groceries until sundays model run but I have a feeling old man winter is about to announce his presence big time this holiday. Perfect for staying in and watching football. May not get alot of snow since moisture and exact track is up in the air but definitely our coldest days by far.
Pfft on staying in! Great chance to get out and play and shoot accident video! I am sooo ready for some snow.
I think your right, GFS is on crack.
Amount of moisture available might be an issue in accumulations.
Either way, I ready to say by to the 80 degree days for a while.
Yep, I'm ready for the snow too:
JEEP 4X4 + TOW STRAPS = CASH
Just kidding. I do like getting out in it though.
Looks more and more like a pretty good snow storm coming in fri-sat. Wouldnt be surprised to see 4-6 inches in the SW panhandle. ofcourse with ground trmsp so warm it will only stick to roofs, grass, and cars. Streets should just stay wet. Either way with highs in the mid 30's and lows in the low 20's to upper teens going to be a system shock after 2 record highs mon-tues. 82 down to 22 in less than 48 hrs!! welcome to the panhandle. Hell it dropped 40 degrees in 4 hrs after the front came through tuesday evening.
4 inches here at my house for Thanksgiving! More on the way tonight/tomorrow, possible 2-5 inches depending on the track of the storm system.
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