6/2 Forecast

2115Z UPDATE: Sitting here SW of Lubbock around Wolfforth. Although I keep eyeing the boundary up around Hereford/Canyon, SPC mesoanalysis and surface obs tell me to stay put. Strong instabilities and a few other favorable parameters are in this region. I am seeing a few cumulus looking pretty healthy now and starting to challenge the cap. Will start updating on Tailchaser (link to right)

1815z UPDATE: Headed to Terry County....and probably S to OFB

All signs point to the Midland/Lubbock area today. A strong OFB (main one) backed up with a considerable cold pool and bubble high should keep it in place today. It extends from around Seminole to Colorado City and eastward along the I-20 corridor. Another weaker OFB extends south of that from Seminole SE into the Hill Country. And yet another one, possibly the front, extends across the TX PH.

I'm a bit concerned that the main OFB is still making southward progress though per satellite and surface analysis. However, I see signs that it is slowing down with the low level stratus sreaming north of it. That tells me it is paper thin. With mixing this afternoon, I'm thinking we might see it firm up near LBB. We'll see.

In any event, NAM/RUC are painting the strongest instabilities down there along with better upper level winds. I'm tired of HPs, so this should give me a better shot at something other than that. I'll update my thoughts on here as I head down that way and switch to Tailcaster when the action starts heating up. I just hope for a good, isolated cell today.