June's Swoon / Today's Setup
UPDATE 2100z: Hard to argue with anything other than Clovis/Lubbock area for a target. OFB appears to have nearly stalled and in excellent orientation to steering flow and expected storm development. Concern is that several storms will erupt on boundary....but starting to think that somethin in E NM will fire up (as it is now) and latch onto OFB and go nuts. Looks like HP mode, but with CAPE up to 5000 per SPC mesoanalysis and LI exceeding -10C, some rather potent supercells should explode here shortly. Out the door in about 30 minutes. This should be fun!!!! Will update on Tailcaster (link to right).
Ok....now that May is out of the way, let the Chase-O-Rama begin! :-) Some of my best, most memorable chases have occurred in June.
6/13/98 (Guthrie/OKC)
6/9/04 (NW KS)
6/12/04 (Mulvane, KS)
6/12/05 (Kent County, TX)
Even when I wasn't able to chase, I have "virtually" chase from my computer desk watching and salivating over some of the most awesome radar images I've ever seen. So, I am quite happy to turn the calendar page today.
To celebrate, it appears that today is setting up to be a classic OFB event...one my most favorite. The question is just how far south the current, new OFB will setup due to ongoing convection across the TX PH. I'm a bit perplexed as storms continue to erupt and fire all over the place. This will create a larger cold pool which in turn accelerates the OFB making it take on more of a cold front characteristic. Tornadic supercells don't like fresh, fast moving OFBs just like they don't like fast moving cold fronts. I prefer to see more stagnant OFBs that are nearly stationary with good insolation on both sides of it...AND generally parallel to mean steering flow.
To complicate things, the northern half of the PH into NE NM is forecast to destabilize significantly this afternoon with a true synoptic scale boundary/front across the OK PH and NE NM. The RUC is breaking out storms along this feature as well with favorable dynamics. I'm not sure exactly how much CAPE we'll see for these storms to work with...and siding more on the pessimistic NAM forecast.
On the otherhand, the OFB could very well end up being the bad play today, and I expect it will for the most part. What I'm watching is the westward portion near the NM border. On radar, it is pronounces with a new storm forming along it near Vega. It sucks that it is forming this early since I'm stuck at work. It just popped a severe and taking on a nice radar signature. This would be THE cell to be in imo. It is setup up favorably with the OFB position...if the OFB slows down. But...about when I say that....it starts to fizzle. LOL!!
Very simply, I'm in a holding pattern....a wait-and-see status. Since I can't cut out of here too early, I have little choice. By 4pm, I will be and at that time, take a look at things and blast out of here.
Ok....now that May is out of the way, let the Chase-O-Rama begin! :-) Some of my best, most memorable chases have occurred in June.
6/13/98 (Guthrie/OKC)
6/9/04 (NW KS)
6/12/04 (Mulvane, KS)
6/12/05 (Kent County, TX)
Even when I wasn't able to chase, I have "virtually" chase from my computer desk watching and salivating over some of the most awesome radar images I've ever seen. So, I am quite happy to turn the calendar page today.
To celebrate, it appears that today is setting up to be a classic OFB event...one my most favorite. The question is just how far south the current, new OFB will setup due to ongoing convection across the TX PH. I'm a bit perplexed as storms continue to erupt and fire all over the place. This will create a larger cold pool which in turn accelerates the OFB making it take on more of a cold front characteristic. Tornadic supercells don't like fresh, fast moving OFBs just like they don't like fast moving cold fronts. I prefer to see more stagnant OFBs that are nearly stationary with good insolation on both sides of it...AND generally parallel to mean steering flow.
To complicate things, the northern half of the PH into NE NM is forecast to destabilize significantly this afternoon with a true synoptic scale boundary/front across the OK PH and NE NM. The RUC is breaking out storms along this feature as well with favorable dynamics. I'm not sure exactly how much CAPE we'll see for these storms to work with...and siding more on the pessimistic NAM forecast.
On the otherhand, the OFB could very well end up being the bad play today, and I expect it will for the most part. What I'm watching is the westward portion near the NM border. On radar, it is pronounces with a new storm forming along it near Vega. It sucks that it is forming this early since I'm stuck at work. It just popped a severe and taking on a nice radar signature. This would be THE cell to be in imo. It is setup up favorably with the OFB position...if the OFB slows down. But...about when I say that....it starts to fizzle. LOL!!
Very simply, I'm in a holding pattern....a wait-and-see status. Since I can't cut out of here too early, I have little choice. By 4pm, I will be and at that time, take a look at things and blast out of here.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 6/01/2007 12:56:00 PM
2 Comments:
You look to be set up for the warned area. Hope you catch something.
I think I caught a couple of mosquitos in my car. ;-) Be sure to get some bug spray when you get down here. The skeeters are bad with all of the rain. I had a couple of biting flies attack me too. Yikes!
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