6/16 Pics/Report and Today's Thoughts
Storms were pretty stout, but didn't look all that great visually....just some high based severe storms as I expected with dewpoints mixing out into the upper 50's. However, as they moved into OK, they really cranked up as they found some moisture. Unfortunately, the storms overtook me as I missed my turn near Sayre and then got stuck in a construction zone where I-40 narrows to one lane....suddenly. An 18-wheeler tried to climb into the backseat with me. This really screwed me up and I spent the rest of the evening with the jaws of the SW OK beast nipping my ass for awhile as it moved at 40mph. I found myself in the notch a couple of times with blinding rain and intense winds. A couple of times, the winds would shift direction 180 degrees and intensify as if a tornado was trying to form on top of me. Scary stuff.
I finally got our ahead of this thing NW of Lawton and got some night pics. The structure was ALOT more impressive earlier but I didn't have time to stop and shoot. I wish I had now...it was pretty awesome. I also passed up an incredible lightning opportunity earlier when the cell first went TOR. There were numerous combinations of intense anvil crawlers punctuated with a CG. Hindsight says I should have seized that opportunity as it would have been among some of the best I've shot.
I was happy to see my target of Tulia/Memphis verified early on....too bad it wasn't more impressive visually. Here waking up in Lawton and based on analysis this morning, think I'm at a good spot for today's potential.
The 850mb winds are progged to veer more today and the vertical wind shear is progged to be weaker from 0-6km. However, 70F dewpoints across S OK and N TX combined with the lingering cloud cover and overnight convection to keep temps down will favor lower LCLs to take better advantage of the 0-3km veering profiles. A nice outflow boundary extends from near Lawton to Ada and has already sparked on strong storm east of Duncan. As we get insolation today, CAPE values should reach 4000 easily down in my target area. With that kind of instability, the vertical wind profiles are certainly adequate....especially if the OFB hangs around today.
I would also seriously consider far N OK into S Central KS in the vicinity of the upper low. 0-3km profiles look pitiful...but that is the model forecast as of 12Z. Things could change. At the very least, some impressive and photogenic cells should erupt up there.
As for now, I'm hanging around Lawton until I see a specific target coming into focus..which very well could be the parking lot of th Super 8 here. :-)
Pics from yesterday:
I finally got our ahead of this thing NW of Lawton and got some night pics. The structure was ALOT more impressive earlier but I didn't have time to stop and shoot. I wish I had now...it was pretty awesome. I also passed up an incredible lightning opportunity earlier when the cell first went TOR. There were numerous combinations of intense anvil crawlers punctuated with a CG. Hindsight says I should have seized that opportunity as it would have been among some of the best I've shot.
I was happy to see my target of Tulia/Memphis verified early on....too bad it wasn't more impressive visually. Here waking up in Lawton and based on analysis this morning, think I'm at a good spot for today's potential.
The 850mb winds are progged to veer more today and the vertical wind shear is progged to be weaker from 0-6km. However, 70F dewpoints across S OK and N TX combined with the lingering cloud cover and overnight convection to keep temps down will favor lower LCLs to take better advantage of the 0-3km veering profiles. A nice outflow boundary extends from near Lawton to Ada and has already sparked on strong storm east of Duncan. As we get insolation today, CAPE values should reach 4000 easily down in my target area. With that kind of instability, the vertical wind profiles are certainly adequate....especially if the OFB hangs around today.
I would also seriously consider far N OK into S Central KS in the vicinity of the upper low. 0-3km profiles look pitiful...but that is the model forecast as of 12Z. Things could change. At the very least, some impressive and photogenic cells should erupt up there.
As for now, I'm hanging around Lawton until I see a specific target coming into focus..which very well could be the parking lot of th Super 8 here. :-)
Pics from yesterday:
posted by Steve Miller TX at 6/17/2006 10:10:00 AM
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