Chase Season Sputters Along

Some upper air pattern changes are on the way. It's hard to have any optimism in a season (since early May) that has continually trended negative with each potential setup advertised by the models. The biggest caveat has been adequate boundary layer moisture. The latest models, including the NAM, are showing a strong fetch off of the GOM from the surface to 850mb (~5,000 feet) starting up early Friday. It will be interesting to see the results. However, I'm a pessimist conditioned by the middle and latter parts of the 2006 chase season.

Upstairs, an approaching trough is advertised to merge with an upper level weakness/low over the GOM waters just off of the Texas coast. The result will be a broad, although weak, trough over the Colorado Rockies into New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. It is certainly appearing possible that somewhere in the southern plains will see decent mid level flow from a general westerly direction. At the same time, the boundary layer winds pick with broad, relatively strong southerly flow all over the southern and central plains. A pronounced cool front will sag into the central plains and down towards the panhandle region with a surface low progged to develop in that area.

In short, a period of convective activity across the southern and central plains will begin in earnest starting Friday and possibly through Sunday as the upper ridge is smacked by a trough. Details are of course impossible this far out. But, at least it appears we have a system to watch with at least a remote possibility for some severe storms to chase....perhaps the last chase possibility of the season here in the southern plains and Kansas.

The good news is that the rain prospects for this drought-ravaged region are looking better. If the longer range model trends are any indication, Texas at least may come under the influence of broad easterlies setting us up for a more tropical-like pattern with daily diurnal convective chances and temperatures on this side of the boiling point of water.