Forecast - 6/16 - TX PH / W TX

12z NAM/RUC in very good agreement with surface and upper level features combining to create excellent dynamics for some powerful storms. I think RUC has better handle of dewpoints being mixed out abit more than the NAM depiction. Visible satellite and upper air analysis still show moisture to be shallow with the exception of Brownsville fianlly showing some decent moisture at 850mb. So, it makes sense that dewpoints will mix to below 60F across W TX and the PH with perhaps localized moisture convergence along the dryline to maintain a few 60Td readings. With temps soaring into the 90's, LCLs will be high (a common theme for 2006) and with colder temperatures aloft, cold pool generation will be extremely strong and rapid.

However, storms should be pretty severe and produce some stunning structure... perhaps even a good haboob setup. There is a possibility that towards dark as storms move further east and mixing relaxes, that some better moisture will make it into the storm environment and with a LLJ, they should continue to be severe through the night. Any discreet storms or tail-end charlies could have a little better tornado threat when that happens...but I really think it will all be strongly linear by that time. Overall, I wouldn't outlook greater than 2%.

My target? Near the forecast dryline bulge/punch from Tulia to Memphis and 25 miles north and south of that line.

I still belive Saturday has better potential for tornadoes across TX anywhere from Wichita Falls to San Angelo. Details on that in the morning as ALOT will happen between now and then creating numerous variables (such as boundaries and insolation potential) impossible to resolve at this point. The potential is certainly there though...stay tuned.