Happy Happy, Joy Joy

Just as everybody starts putting their chase gear into mothballs and writing off the rest of the season, we are facing a couple of good chasing opportunities for Friday and Saturday. The models are looking better and trending more positive with each 12 hour run. With the SPC now outlooking Friday as a slight risk, it's catching everybody's attention and rolling out the bandwagon. ;-) I admit I was pretty pessimistic previously, but the model consistency and agreement is remarkable this far out. The moisture return gets better with each run and should be ample to crank out some pretty severe storms on Friday when combined with such strong dynamics aloft coming into play. Any outflow boundary interactions will prove to be critical for any tornado opportunity.

Based strictly on model analysis, I'm liking the general area from Lubbock to Paducah for tomorrow. Best veering and shear profiles will exist here as well as what I think will be deeper/better moisture profiles (despite model progs at this point) as well as remaining a little more discreet/isolated in nature....although likely firing up later than stuff further north into the PH. Any pronounced outflow boundaries from possible early morning convection will have to be considered...if they do materialize and are strong enough to resist mixing out.

Saturday will have MUCH better moisture to work with and resultant instabilities. The models keep trying to target the Abilene/Brownwood vicinities and for now this seems like a good bet. I think there is a good possibility of some outflow boundaries to deal with from heavy convection up in OK and the Red River valley region. Again, vertical wind profiles look to be awesome (as advertised) in this target area.

Those are my thoughts at this point. Alot of variables still to be played out. The one thing certain to come out of this is a signficant rainfall event for the northern half of TX and OK where a new desert region is evolving....the Texoma Desert. Everybody here will be rejoicing heartily for this alone.

I will be out chasing this event as it could very well be the last hurrah for us southern plains nomads. Stay tuned!!!