Forecast, Drought, Musings

First, congratulations to our American Armed Forces for terminating al-Zarqawi today. Well done. May the bastard burn in hell. I hope ya'll come home soon.


Now for some chasing stuff.....

Just as everybody starts writing off 2006, some faint glimmers of hope (or mirages) are being served up by the models both this weekend and beyond. Since their performance even 24 hours out this year has been about as reliable as rolling out a full house on the "river" in Texas Hold 'Em, I'm not ready to call Ma Nature's bet just yet. She's been a tough and ornery opponent this year ;-) I'm liking the "flop" though with this evening's NAM for Saturday's setup. If we can realize dewpoints in the mid to upper 60's, after adjusting for the typical NAM bias of mid to upper 70's, then CAPE of 3000j/kG should be realized. Intense surface heating with forecast temps to the south of the front nearing 100 (with temps in the mid to upper 80's north of it) will aid in intense low level lapse rates and energy. With a stationary front/boundary in the area and 30 knots westerly mid level flow atop of easterly low level boundary flow to the north of the front, the stage would be ideal for a tornadic supercell if it can ride right along the or just a hair north of the front. However, we got two more cards left to play. I'm preparing to go all-in early Saturday morning to make the drive to southern or central Kansas...wherever things setup. I might fold too. :-)

The drought is back and more fierce. Many municipalities across Texas are now in a Stage 3 drought contigency and some up to stage 4. My city is in Stage 3. No car washing. You can only water your lawn in the evening or early morning ONLY on your trash pickup day once per week. Hand watering by hose is allowed as are soaker hoses. They have added an additional surcharge to "motivate" me to use less water. Violations are subject to up to $2,000 and repeated violators can have their water cutoff. All city personnel including police will be enforcing and reporting violations. There's even a hotline for the public to report violators. On the local news this evening, officials are cracking down everywhere and even cutting off water sprinkler systems. Stage 4 is alot more severe and I'm afraid we are heading there later this year. We've got it good here compared to the Texas Panhandle where Lake Meridith, a major water supply soure up there, is down to 10-15% of capacity. It could literally dry up to a mudhole later this year. I'm not sure what they will do if it does. I'm trying to find out.

In more amusing topics, it's that time again, kids, for the light bar debates....and awfully early:


As the one who discovered and first identified SDS and continues studying this disease, I'm quite alarmed about the premature off-season followed by such a horrible and disappointing 2006. I predict a spike in the severity of SDS never before recorded in modern chase history. It is going to get real nasty. You see here a couple of GrailChasers approaching a roadblock. We know the outcome of that encounter. :-)



(added 6/9) For the record, I think they are important safety tools to be used *responsibly*. Chasers operate within a hazardous and low-visibility environment. Alerting other drivers or chasers of your presence is a good idea, no? I've read excellent arguments for their use, alot by David Drummond, and the only opposing arguments concern a paranoid perception that "somebody" out there "might" perceive it negatively. What I find rather amusing is all of the strong and emotional rhetoric about chasing safety...only to see alot of people get bent out of shape over the use of safety equipment. LOL!! I'm getting one for my vehicle now. :-)

Yes, it is going to be a long off-season. I'm going to stock up on the popcorn and Diet Dr. Pepper. :-)