Forecast 5/4
2230Z UPDATE: I'm still here at work watching my preferred target area of Brady and 50 miles west explode. :-( A cell just popped up between Brady and Menard that looks like the "sweet" one to be on. Anyway, it looks like my secondary target of N TX north of I-20 isn't going to pan out. I discovered today that the wxcaster.com RUC was different from the UCAR RUC regarding instability. I'm not sure why though, but I was using it all day today and it did show the higher CAPE across N TX when in reality it was closer to the UCAR RUC and current SPC Mesoanalysis Page. Odd. Maybe I've been coding too much today. ;-) I'll certainly be aware of this from now on. In any event, the cu fields in N TX are flat and stable looking on satellite. The synoptic frontal convergence is practically zero now. I don't see anything popping up north of I-20 until late this evening and tonight....and then I'm pretty skeptical anything ever will. So, another armchair chase this evening from home with a cold brewski at my side. :-)
19Z UPDATE: Surface pattern is still complex. The synoptic front is actually from just south of OKC to near Wichita Falls and down to just south of Abilene and curving west to near Midland. This based on surface progs and VAD analysis. An outflow boundary apparently undergoing weak frontolysis stretches from near Abilene to west and south of Brownwood and back to north of Waco. I still like the Brady area and WNW of there about 50 miles. I would be there today if I could...and right now that doesn't look likely with work responsibilities since that would be too far for a worknight.
However, areas ahead of the synoptic front across North Texas, north of I-20, are recovering nicely now. CAPE is getting up to and even surpassing 2000 and the latest RUC continues to destabilize things approaching 3000 CAPE. With easterly boundary layer winds with westerly winds 700mb on up, this results in an excellent and favorable veering profile..although weak at all levels. The Jayton profiler is offline, but the White Sands and Tucemcari profilers show some increasing flow at 500mb with a pronounced backing signature near 500mb at White Sands. Furthermore, water vapor analysis shows a distinct area of ascent over the TX panhandle and SSE approaching N TX. So, it appears that some sort of disturbance, likely near White Sands, is heading this direction. Therefore, I'm forecasting a round of severe thunderstorms right here in North Central Texas this afternoon and evening. Large hail looks like the main threat as low level winds appear to be too weak in supporting tornadoes. But, the veering in the lowest 3km is impressive, so at least the structure should be impressive. However, any dominant, isolated supercell that moves deviantly (SE), then it could have a tornado potential. It is May. :-)
So, it looks like I'll hang out until things start firing here in the next 2-3 hours in my neck of the woods and then head towards the best looking area in N TX. If I had to guess, I'd say Mineral Wells to Denton.
EARLIER DISCUSSION:
What a crazy surface pattern as of noon. My target today would be Brady, TX. I see nothing to add to the SPC discussion other than I think the 15z RUC makes as much sense as anything else. Again, this is just on the outer fringe of my "worknight" chase range. So, unfortunately, I'll likely be armchair chasing again today. However, the actual synoptic front appears to still be from around Ardmore to near Sweetwater based on careful surface analysis focusing alot on dewpoints and temperatures. The overnight convection has really obscured it's location up until now. I'm curious to see if this whacked the RUC this morning and if this front will serve as a focus for storms closer to DFW later this afternoon. The RUC was trying to break out some precip to the SW of here prior to 21z. That makes things abit more interesting for possibly chasing within my range. North Central TX may not be out of the woods today. I'll likely update later this afternoon when things become even clearer.
Based on the chaotic scenario currently and alot of variables still to play out, I'm not going to attempt any sort of forecast for tomorrow or Saturday....although my gut instinct is I'll be staying home both days. I hope not. :-)
19Z UPDATE: Surface pattern is still complex. The synoptic front is actually from just south of OKC to near Wichita Falls and down to just south of Abilene and curving west to near Midland. This based on surface progs and VAD analysis. An outflow boundary apparently undergoing weak frontolysis stretches from near Abilene to west and south of Brownwood and back to north of Waco. I still like the Brady area and WNW of there about 50 miles. I would be there today if I could...and right now that doesn't look likely with work responsibilities since that would be too far for a worknight.
However, areas ahead of the synoptic front across North Texas, north of I-20, are recovering nicely now. CAPE is getting up to and even surpassing 2000 and the latest RUC continues to destabilize things approaching 3000 CAPE. With easterly boundary layer winds with westerly winds 700mb on up, this results in an excellent and favorable veering profile..although weak at all levels. The Jayton profiler is offline, but the White Sands and Tucemcari profilers show some increasing flow at 500mb with a pronounced backing signature near 500mb at White Sands. Furthermore, water vapor analysis shows a distinct area of ascent over the TX panhandle and SSE approaching N TX. So, it appears that some sort of disturbance, likely near White Sands, is heading this direction. Therefore, I'm forecasting a round of severe thunderstorms right here in North Central Texas this afternoon and evening. Large hail looks like the main threat as low level winds appear to be too weak in supporting tornadoes. But, the veering in the lowest 3km is impressive, so at least the structure should be impressive. However, any dominant, isolated supercell that moves deviantly (SE), then it could have a tornado potential. It is May. :-)
So, it looks like I'll hang out until things start firing here in the next 2-3 hours in my neck of the woods and then head towards the best looking area in N TX. If I had to guess, I'd say Mineral Wells to Denton.
EARLIER DISCUSSION:
What a crazy surface pattern as of noon. My target today would be Brady, TX. I see nothing to add to the SPC discussion other than I think the 15z RUC makes as much sense as anything else. Again, this is just on the outer fringe of my "worknight" chase range. So, unfortunately, I'll likely be armchair chasing again today. However, the actual synoptic front appears to still be from around Ardmore to near Sweetwater based on careful surface analysis focusing alot on dewpoints and temperatures. The overnight convection has really obscured it's location up until now. I'm curious to see if this whacked the RUC this morning and if this front will serve as a focus for storms closer to DFW later this afternoon. The RUC was trying to break out some precip to the SW of here prior to 21z. That makes things abit more interesting for possibly chasing within my range. North Central TX may not be out of the woods today. I'll likely update later this afternoon when things become even clearer.
Based on the chaotic scenario currently and alot of variables still to play out, I'm not going to attempt any sort of forecast for tomorrow or Saturday....although my gut instinct is I'll be staying home both days. I hope not. :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 5/04/2006 12:33:00 PM
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