Forecast - 4/28
18Z UPDATE: I'm changing my target areas based on the nice current trends. I'll be heading down I-20 towards Abilene and the area just north of there by about 50 miles. I like the better more "virgin" dewpoints coming into that area as well as the warm front/dryline intersection. Childress/Paducah is still a nice area, but I think a little further south is a more prudent choice given the increasing convection/rain over North Texas likely interferring with good airmass recovery in my original target area. See ya'll out there.
Definitely not a real clear-cut setup today with alot of variables or as I like to say a swarm of horseflies ready to take a dive into the ointment. ;-)
I'll keep it pretty simple as there will be severe storms from around Childress down into the Sierra Madres of Mexico. I have two target areas. The first one would be right on or immediately east of the surface low around Childress. This has two potential problems: 1) proximity to southward moving cold front with SSW/SW flow in the mid levels tending to move storms north of it quickly....but if the front stalls could actually spin up a tornado as cells cross it 2) a nearly unidirectional vertical wind profile from 850mb on up that is also nearly parallel to the dryline which will result in storms getting seeded from cells to the S or SSW.
The second target area is from San Angelo to Junction to Del Rio...in the SPC risk bullseye. Better vertical wind profiles will exist here with more veering. However, there's alot of thick cloud cover down there right now....but might thin just enough to get a little heating. So far, the precip isn't extensive or heavy staying just north of I-10. But, the models are trying to rapidly increase the precip all over the place down here. My gut feeling is that they are right.
So, despite the heightened SPC risk areas in my number two target area, I'm playing the Childress area on the surface low. The current surface winds are strongly backed all over northern Texas and into that area which is a good sign. If we can keep them backed this much out of the SE or even ESE along the Red River (which is possible with the surface low organizing there...despite model forecasts).
Overall, I'm not real excited about today about both target areas. I think it will be a large scale heavy rain event punctuated by a big, honkin squall line bulldozing across the state by evening. South Texas (Del Rio to Austin/San Antonio and southward) should stand the better chance of a few discrete cells out ahead of the line and away from the heavy precip areas.
If the upper low hangs up over central KS tomorrow, my money would be on that being the better chaseday. The 12Z NAM though doesn't offer much hope of that. We'll see. I'll worry about that in the morning. :-)
Headed out from work this afternoon when I am able to do so. For those of ya'll already out there, tell the storms to wait. ;-)
Definitely not a real clear-cut setup today with alot of variables or as I like to say a swarm of horseflies ready to take a dive into the ointment. ;-)
I'll keep it pretty simple as there will be severe storms from around Childress down into the Sierra Madres of Mexico. I have two target areas. The first one would be right on or immediately east of the surface low around Childress. This has two potential problems: 1) proximity to southward moving cold front with SSW/SW flow in the mid levels tending to move storms north of it quickly....but if the front stalls could actually spin up a tornado as cells cross it 2) a nearly unidirectional vertical wind profile from 850mb on up that is also nearly parallel to the dryline which will result in storms getting seeded from cells to the S or SSW.
The second target area is from San Angelo to Junction to Del Rio...in the SPC risk bullseye. Better vertical wind profiles will exist here with more veering. However, there's alot of thick cloud cover down there right now....but might thin just enough to get a little heating. So far, the precip isn't extensive or heavy staying just north of I-10. But, the models are trying to rapidly increase the precip all over the place down here. My gut feeling is that they are right.
So, despite the heightened SPC risk areas in my number two target area, I'm playing the Childress area on the surface low. The current surface winds are strongly backed all over northern Texas and into that area which is a good sign. If we can keep them backed this much out of the SE or even ESE along the Red River (which is possible with the surface low organizing there...despite model forecasts).
Overall, I'm not real excited about today about both target areas. I think it will be a large scale heavy rain event punctuated by a big, honkin squall line bulldozing across the state by evening. South Texas (Del Rio to Austin/San Antonio and southward) should stand the better chance of a few discrete cells out ahead of the line and away from the heavy precip areas.
If the upper low hangs up over central KS tomorrow, my money would be on that being the better chaseday. The 12Z NAM though doesn't offer much hope of that. We'll see. I'll worry about that in the morning. :-)
Headed out from work this afternoon when I am able to do so. For those of ya'll already out there, tell the storms to wait. ;-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/28/2006 10:44:00 AM
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