Forecast - 5/2

Man, after the incredible stormchase yesterday, I'm ready for more! :-)

The 1630z SPC outlook downplays the tornado threat to 5%. I'm not sure where the outflow boundary is exactly, but somewhere angled NW to SE from around Seymour down to Hillsboro based on satellite and careful surface analysis. That's my best guesstimate. Hopefully it will show up more on satellite in a few hours as all of the convective debris settles out.

Mid 60 Td is already evident on the SW side of the outflow boundary/cold pool sector over N TX and creeping up towards Paducah. The upper impulse from E AZ as of this morning is on track to hit the SE TX PH and NW TX late this afternoon as it is now in central NM showing decent ascent out ahead of it. Surprsingly, the NAM picked it up. I noticed on the 12Z sounding for ElPaso showed 40-45 knots around 500mb which wasn't forecast by the models. This might indicate a little better "oomph" to the impulse...and backed up by water vapor analysis.

With the instabilities today, it's a classic setup for a big monster supercell to munch slowly SE along the outflow boundary later today into tonight. As a matter of fact, it might intensify after dark as it encounters a more pronounced outflow boundary from Snyder and SEward. This storm motion and the fact it will munch along the OFB tells me that it will definitely be tornadic..and a strong likelihood of it being a long-lived cyclic beast at that as it would move right into the teeth of SSE to SE boundary layer winds.

So, my target would be Paducah initially. If I'm lucky...I'll be able to make it to Seymour.....more likely only to Graham. But, I'm curious to see if a storm pops up further E/SE of my initial target area more towards Seymour to Graham because of the influences of the impulse coming in.

We'll see how it all plays out. I hope to make it out that way in time for the show.