Forecast - Monday 4/24

After totally flubbing my forecast yesterday, thanks to over-reliance on the
models, today I've got alot more confidence in how things will transpire.

First off, expect a shift of the Day1 outlook further SW. The 3hr RUC
initialized at 14z combined with the 12Z NAM is showing a surface low winding
up between Childress and Altus. Current surface analysis is right on target
with the lowest surface pressure at Childress supported by surface wind
trajectories. So, I certainly expect to see the moderate expanded into SW OK
and perhaps across the Red River (I know...a moderate south of the Red River
sounds like science fiction). Overall, my thoughts are for the preferred
surface parameters and thermodynamics to be across SW/S OK and into NW TX where
near 70Td is encroaching into the DFW area. In fact, current surface obs and
the model forecasts show some backed surface flow across N TX as well with a
sharp dryline with SW flow punching in from the SW. So, I think the western
parts of N TX should be on guard later today and this evening whenever the cap
might bust. When is the big question right now and might be more after sunset.
I'm not sure right now.

However, the mid and upper flow is abit on the weak side this far
south...according to the models. So, HP storms would be the likely mode...but
with a tornadic potential given the strong instabilities and SREH busting 300.
With strong instabilities and rich moisture axis, I believe there is strong
potential for good deviant storm motion to the SE. If any storm does this, the
tornadic potential will be very high in my opinion as storm-relative winds at
all levels become quite favorable.

Pretty much most of OK will be under the gun today from Woodward south to the
Red River...the western half of OK. The northen part will still have favorable
dynamics including more favorable mid and upper level winds. Tornadic
supercells are certainly a good bet there...but I can't make it there today. :-
) I still slightly prefer areas south of I-40 and west of I-35 regardless.

So, my target? Frederick-Hobart, OK. I can just make that after leaving work today.
More updates later if possible.