Forecast - 4/23-24
Today looks like a real disappointment shaping up. There are two big ol' horseflies in the ointment for today. 1) weak mid level flow of 20-30 knots at best and 2) High LCLs resulting in strong cold pooling and outflow dominant storms. I also don't like the slight anticyclonic curvature of the mid level jet which will result in vertical motions being suppressed.
At least there will be 50-65 knots 300mb winds today to aid with developing some strong storms and ventilating the anvil to some extent. With that in mind, the only hope for a "good" supercell with even the slightest hope for a spinup would be for an isolated storm to remain nearly stationary and drift slowly south creating better storm-relative winds in the mid levels. It's a long shot.
If I could teletransport today, I would actually head to E/SE NM where I think the better combination of moisture, dynamics, upslope and vertical wind profiles will result in the better storms. I would not rule out the Davis Mountains either around Pecos to Monahans.
Tomorrow, things get alot better. A pronounced triple point forms somewhere in W/SW OK, CAPE of 2500+, 40-45 knot mid level winds, good veering profiles. Everything really looks quite good for some serious storms on Monday in OK and eventually into N TX (but well after dark). I believe the only variable to play out is the extent of overnight convection and the southward push of the cold front thus dictating where the triple point ends up. I'd definitely save my precious gas money for tomorrow. :-)
On a side note, my VX2100 came back from warranty repair and it's in great shape. In fact, the tape drive housing was replaced and actually "fits" better than when I first got it. They repaired it very quickly in about 3 working days after receiving it then sending it back 3-day ground. I get it back in less than 2 weeks from the day I shipped it out...and includes Good Friday. Oddly enough, their warranty repair center is in Laredo, Texas. It's good to see NAFTA at work. ;-)
I also resubbed to XM radio and installed the new radio in the vehicle yesterday. I also have a home kit too. I'm a huge music afficionado and it really is a great source for all sorts of different music including new and upcoming groups that you would never ever hear on commercial radio. One group that I discovered last year on XM and now one of my favorites is "Porcupine Tree" and "Liquid Tension Experiment". Check them out. Overall, it is a very nice addition to my extensive MP3 collection on my computers (I don't play CDs anymore). The 3 comedy channels on there are great too. :-) It makes those long chase trips much more comfortable and endurable.
At least there will be 50-65 knots 300mb winds today to aid with developing some strong storms and ventilating the anvil to some extent. With that in mind, the only hope for a "good" supercell with even the slightest hope for a spinup would be for an isolated storm to remain nearly stationary and drift slowly south creating better storm-relative winds in the mid levels. It's a long shot.
If I could teletransport today, I would actually head to E/SE NM where I think the better combination of moisture, dynamics, upslope and vertical wind profiles will result in the better storms. I would not rule out the Davis Mountains either around Pecos to Monahans.
Tomorrow, things get alot better. A pronounced triple point forms somewhere in W/SW OK, CAPE of 2500+, 40-45 knot mid level winds, good veering profiles. Everything really looks quite good for some serious storms on Monday in OK and eventually into N TX (but well after dark). I believe the only variable to play out is the extent of overnight convection and the southward push of the cold front thus dictating where the triple point ends up. I'd definitely save my precious gas money for tomorrow. :-)
On a side note, my VX2100 came back from warranty repair and it's in great shape. In fact, the tape drive housing was replaced and actually "fits" better than when I first got it. They repaired it very quickly in about 3 working days after receiving it then sending it back 3-day ground. I get it back in less than 2 weeks from the day I shipped it out...and includes Good Friday. Oddly enough, their warranty repair center is in Laredo, Texas. It's good to see NAFTA at work. ;-)
I also resubbed to XM radio and installed the new radio in the vehicle yesterday. I also have a home kit too. I'm a huge music afficionado and it really is a great source for all sorts of different music including new and upcoming groups that you would never ever hear on commercial radio. One group that I discovered last year on XM and now one of my favorites is "Porcupine Tree" and "Liquid Tension Experiment". Check them out. Overall, it is a very nice addition to my extensive MP3 collection on my computers (I don't play CDs anymore). The 3 comedy channels on there are great too. :-) It makes those long chase trips much more comfortable and endurable.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/23/2006 09:11:00 AM
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