Forecast Thoughts - 4/28-29

Tomorrow (Friday) appears to me as one of those "headache" events trying to forecast more than about 6-12 hours in advance of peak heating. It's been my experience over the years that these big, strong upper lows/troughs create way too much ascent and linear forcing with practically no cap. Even if we get several hours of insolation ahead of the dryline, everything should erupt quickly into a pretty powerful, linear squall line. It appears the source inflow region will be worked over pretty good and relatively stable. The CAPE values will likely be pretty low as a result. This will serve to reduce the chance of any isolated cells developing ahead of the line. Cells will also be hauling butt too with at least a 70knot mid level jet. (I contend that fast moving storms have a much harder time rooting in the BL too....just a pet theory of mine). Basically, it looks like crap for chasing, but I'll be out there...LOL!!. South TX might see a better chase opportunity and more isolated supercells for anybody down in that area. (We need to annex the "Grandes Llanuras de Norteamerica" region west of the Rio Grande just for us Texas stormchasers so we can catch those springtime monster supercells coming off the Sierra Madres. It would be very similar to E CO. I might organize a week-long armed-escorted trip there someday and invite Roger Edwards along :-) Celldata? We don need no steenkin' cell data. LOL! )

HOWEVER....this does not mean that a few tornadoes won't spinup with initial convective development or with embedded supercells in the squall line. The models are consistent with developing SREH of 400 all over the central third of TX with a bullseye of 500 west of DFW by 00Z. 0-6km shear will be impressive (maybe too much for a potentially weak CAPE environment?) and LCLs should be hugging the ground. So, I'm not "poo-pooing" the potential of this event at all.

Overall, I'm not betting on anything until things actually start coming together late tomorrow morning. The upper low is just now coming into the RAOB network, so it will be interesting to see the 00Z models this evening.

On the positive side, extensive heavy rains are forecast for OK and TX which we desperately need to make a dent in the widespread extreme drought conditions. Things will really green up all over the southern plains and help boost our dewpoint values in May through evapotranspiration and help ease the thermonuclear EML source region that's been plaguing us for years. So, I'm not complaining one bit.

For Saturday, a good cold core setup looks likely in the NE quad of OK and SE KS. It's all entirely dependent on the track of the upper low of course....which models usually don't handle very well. Right now, I hope it slows down a tad so that things setup in more chase-friendly terrain. :-)