Forecast 5/3
I didn't make the trip to NW TX last night. It was abit out of range for me for a worknight combined with returning late from Monday night's incredible chase. I was feeling abit tired and yawned pretty much all the way home after work. With increasingly better setups through Friday and even possibly Saturday, it was best to rest up for what could be some pretty wild stuff around these parts Thursday and Friday.
Today is an interesting setup, but today's mid level winds appear to be weaker than yesterday. I've scoured the profilers and VAD data for signs of promise, but can't come up with anything. I saw the LBB VAD show 30 knots a couple of times at 18K feet (500mb), but all of the other winds above and below that level were weaker. Instabilities will be good, but areas across NW/W TX and SW/W OK still have dewpoints in the upper 50's. There should be some advection from the areas to the east and SE where dewpoints are in the mid 60's. I'm not sure how deep the moisture will be...but I am encouraged by the Abilene VAD showing a good low level jet out that way. With evapotranspiration and some moisture convergence, low to mid 60 dewpoints are likely in SW OK and NW TX.
The 15z RUC insists on dissolving the surface low north of Gage and backing all of the flow ahead of the front along and west of I-35...thus helping dewpoints to recover in SW OK and NW TX. The 500mb winds are progged to remain at or below 30 knots...mostly 20-25 knots. However, increasing SE to ESE SFC-850mb flow beneath WSW 700mb flow and W 500mb flow, although weak, will be highly favorable for rotating storms and a tornado or two before storms become HP mushbombs. This should make for some really nice storm structure which is what I would be aiming for today.
Target? It depends on the front's progress. I am picking the area between Paducah to Seymour again today. Once again, this is going to be just on the outer fringe of my worknight chase range. So, I'm not sure if I'll make it for that reason alone. Like I said, tomorrow and Friday are being advertised as potentially more significant severe weather days and closer to home. More on that in the morning, but North Texas might be in for a couple of days of significant severe weather episodes including a few tornadoes and gorilla hail. Stay tuned.
Today is an interesting setup, but today's mid level winds appear to be weaker than yesterday. I've scoured the profilers and VAD data for signs of promise, but can't come up with anything. I saw the LBB VAD show 30 knots a couple of times at 18K feet (500mb), but all of the other winds above and below that level were weaker. Instabilities will be good, but areas across NW/W TX and SW/W OK still have dewpoints in the upper 50's. There should be some advection from the areas to the east and SE where dewpoints are in the mid 60's. I'm not sure how deep the moisture will be...but I am encouraged by the Abilene VAD showing a good low level jet out that way. With evapotranspiration and some moisture convergence, low to mid 60 dewpoints are likely in SW OK and NW TX.
The 15z RUC insists on dissolving the surface low north of Gage and backing all of the flow ahead of the front along and west of I-35...thus helping dewpoints to recover in SW OK and NW TX. The 500mb winds are progged to remain at or below 30 knots...mostly 20-25 knots. However, increasing SE to ESE SFC-850mb flow beneath WSW 700mb flow and W 500mb flow, although weak, will be highly favorable for rotating storms and a tornado or two before storms become HP mushbombs. This should make for some really nice storm structure which is what I would be aiming for today.
Target? It depends on the front's progress. I am picking the area between Paducah to Seymour again today. Once again, this is going to be just on the outer fringe of my worknight chase range. So, I'm not sure if I'll make it for that reason alone. Like I said, tomorrow and Friday are being advertised as potentially more significant severe weather days and closer to home. More on that in the morning, but North Texas might be in for a couple of days of significant severe weather episodes including a few tornadoes and gorilla hail. Stay tuned.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 5/03/2006 12:22:00 PM
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