Chase 3/19
Yesterday, I missed the action by about 5 hours. At about 9:30pm, the first tornado warning of the day was issued for Sutton and Schleicher counties. I stayed around in Sutton county until it got dark and then headed back to San Angelo to stay. Dang it. LOL! A couple of nasty supercells formed about one county west and tracked along the warm front....and still are this morning.
It's early, but my analysis this morning is already indicating that this is going to be another tricky and conditional day. The biggest concern is that there will be too much precip developing early today over most of SW TX right where the better thermodynamics are forecast. Current radar trends already indicate a large band of rain from Pecos county NNE towards Childress. Satellite analysis doesn't offer any hope either for a clear slot. But, it's still early. I'll be watching it carefully through the morning.
The warm front has actually sagged south abit this morning. With ongoing precip to it's north and the amount of colder air and lack of sunshine north of it, I don't see it making it back to the I-20 corridor. It will be lucky to make it San Angelo in my opinion and the RUC is supporting this idea. It is also blossoming a big area of precip too over SW TX. So, San Angelo seems to be the place to stay for this morning and monitor data. But, I'm already seriously considering moving further SE to Junction/Kerrville and get on the warm front and to the east of the forecast large precip shield forecast to develop here. I'll make that decision later on this morning after more analysis, data interrogation, and the SPC forecast.
A word of extreme caution though for anybody chasing down here today. The deer are thick and all long the shoulders of the roads. I saw at least 30 fresh deer carcasses on the side of the road. Why? With the drought going on, there is nothing but dead grass to eat. With the rain they got, the runoff concentrated it along the sides of the road as it pooled and ran off in greater concentrations. I could see that the grass was much greener within about 10-20 feet of the road surface. Plus it's mowed, so it's easier to get to the fresh green stuff popping up.
OK...that's it for me....gotta get going.
It's early, but my analysis this morning is already indicating that this is going to be another tricky and conditional day. The biggest concern is that there will be too much precip developing early today over most of SW TX right where the better thermodynamics are forecast. Current radar trends already indicate a large band of rain from Pecos county NNE towards Childress. Satellite analysis doesn't offer any hope either for a clear slot. But, it's still early. I'll be watching it carefully through the morning.
The warm front has actually sagged south abit this morning. With ongoing precip to it's north and the amount of colder air and lack of sunshine north of it, I don't see it making it back to the I-20 corridor. It will be lucky to make it San Angelo in my opinion and the RUC is supporting this idea. It is also blossoming a big area of precip too over SW TX. So, San Angelo seems to be the place to stay for this morning and monitor data. But, I'm already seriously considering moving further SE to Junction/Kerrville and get on the warm front and to the east of the forecast large precip shield forecast to develop here. I'll make that decision later on this morning after more analysis, data interrogation, and the SPC forecast.
A word of extreme caution though for anybody chasing down here today. The deer are thick and all long the shoulders of the roads. I saw at least 30 fresh deer carcasses on the side of the road. Why? With the drought going on, there is nothing but dead grass to eat. With the rain they got, the runoff concentrated it along the sides of the road as it pooled and ran off in greater concentrations. I could see that the grass was much greener within about 10-20 feet of the road surface. Plus it's mowed, so it's easier to get to the fresh green stuff popping up.
OK...that's it for me....gotta get going.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 3/19/2006 06:38:00 AM
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