Some Crystal Ball Gazing

Like everybody else suffering from the WORST case of Supercell Deprivation Syndrome in May I've ever seen, I am continually analyzing a plethora of model data. I'm trying to conjure up something to rescue the last remaining weeks of a chase season left abandoned by a schizophrenic atmospheric pattern. So far, it's been a "Castaway May" isolating many a chaser in a supercellular void.

Some distant pinpoints of light on the horizon however are starting to show up. First, next Monday/Tuesday look like potential chase days around here. Mid level flow picks up to 30 knots from the W/WNW with pronounced backing of lower level flow with SE 850mb winds. At the surface, a nice triple point surface low and dryline are forecast over the area. If the instability is there, and I think it will be, then some isolated supercells are a good bet in my opinion if the cap can be busted. With winds still lethargic up at 250mb, some HP beasts like we saw last week around Pampa could be in the offering. Still a ways out, but the models are showing some convincing consitency right now.

Beyond that, there are signs of at least marginal westerly flow further out in the crystal ball. In fact, the models and associated spaghetti ensembles are teasing us with some stronger mid level flow as we get into the June 6 range. They have been flopping back and forth like a Nancy Pelosi news conference, but have been trying to break down this bizarre upper air pattern for several days now.

My confidence level is shored up with the fact that even now, the subtropical jet is pretty pronounced and active deep into Mexico. Look the 500-200mb flow down there. It wouldn't take much to translate this further north into June. In fact, I remember some very active June's in years past that even deep down into Texas, the upper level pattern was active with zonal westerlies associated with the subtropical jet lightning up the dryline. Given that June is historically an active month for W TX and the Panhandles, it stands to reason that this is within the realm of realistic possibilities. With such a bizarre and strange upper air pattern currently in place, anything is possible! LOL!!