Today's Plans & Texas Fire Disaster
Sitting here in Lubbock this morning trying to figure out what to expect today. I'm trying to put together a cold core scenario for this afternoon, but the models aren't cooperating. :-) It appears to me that the models are struggling with the smaller surface details. All agree with having some sort of boundary near the Red River Valley towards Amarillo. Will there be enough horizontal vorticity along the boundary to get stretched? I truly don't have a clue at this point. But, other parameters are coming together to lure me out towards Childress.
A nice clearing slot is shaping up in west Texas spreading into the Red River Valley and southern TX PH. With cold core temperatures of -22C at 500mb based on the 12z AMA sounding, strong insolation today beneath this cold dome will create some very steep lapse rates today. The 0-3km lapse rates are expected to exceed 8C/km! Some CAPE 500-1000j/Kg is also forecast today along the boundary. That along with any boundary around should present some interesting possibilities.
In addition, the NSTP parameter in this area has some maxed-out bullseyes. 0-3km MLCAPE values up to 150j/Kg (decent), 0-3 SFC CAPE up to 250j/Kg (pretty good), 0-1km SRH up to 100 (marginal). Overall, the helicities are weak, but the lapse rates are going to be incredible. The critical 0-3km instability parameters and lapse rate values are certainly quite healthy. Throw in some sort of boundary and presto.
Therefore, I expect to see some action today worthy of a deviation from a straight path back home to Amarillo. I hope to be streaming today because I left an important email at home regarding some server changes. If I can get that info today, I'll be running a live stream. I have a feeling that some nice little surprises are in store today. Think of it as a stormchaser's easter egg hunt. ;-) I just hope I find a treat instead of bunny poop. LOL!
The raging wildfires that erupted across OK and TX on Thursday have sadly claimed 4 lives in Texas and destroyed two, yes TWO, towns. Sunset and Stoneburg near Bowie, Texas in Montague county were razed along with over 38,000 acres destroying over 100 structures in that county alone. Thankfully, significant rains have spread over the state to help alleviate the volatile fire conditions. We need ALOT more though. Detailed stories:
Reuters article.
wfaa.com
Texas Forest Service
A nice clearing slot is shaping up in west Texas spreading into the Red River Valley and southern TX PH. With cold core temperatures of -22C at 500mb based on the 12z AMA sounding, strong insolation today beneath this cold dome will create some very steep lapse rates today. The 0-3km lapse rates are expected to exceed 8C/km! Some CAPE 500-1000j/Kg is also forecast today along the boundary. That along with any boundary around should present some interesting possibilities.
In addition, the NSTP parameter in this area has some maxed-out bullseyes. 0-3km MLCAPE values up to 150j/Kg (decent), 0-3 SFC CAPE up to 250j/Kg (pretty good), 0-1km SRH up to 100 (marginal). Overall, the helicities are weak, but the lapse rates are going to be incredible. The critical 0-3km instability parameters and lapse rate values are certainly quite healthy. Throw in some sort of boundary and presto.
Therefore, I expect to see some action today worthy of a deviation from a straight path back home to Amarillo. I hope to be streaming today because I left an important email at home regarding some server changes. If I can get that info today, I'll be running a live stream. I have a feeling that some nice little surprises are in store today. Think of it as a stormchaser's easter egg hunt. ;-) I just hope I find a treat instead of bunny poop. LOL!
The raging wildfires that erupted across OK and TX on Thursday have sadly claimed 4 lives in Texas and destroyed two, yes TWO, towns. Sunset and Stoneburg near Bowie, Texas in Montague county were razed along with over 38,000 acres destroying over 100 structures in that county alone. Thankfully, significant rains have spread over the state to help alleviate the volatile fire conditions. We need ALOT more though. Detailed stories:
Reuters article.
wfaa.com
Texas Forest Service
posted by Steve Miller TX at 4/12/2009 09:09:00 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home