Major Rager In TX/OK Today

No need to regurgitate the SPC outlook today as a strong and dynamic upper system slams into the southern plains this afternoon and overnight. Everything is shaping up for a significant severe weather event including a few tornadoes. I'm personally not sold yet on the long track violent tornado scenario. The instability profiles forecast are spatially rather narrow and in close proximity to the dryline. So, anything that tries to develop in a more discreet nature ahead of the dryline will struggle with meager instability. In addition, ongoing cloud cover may serve to further impede insolation and resultant destabilization. I'm writing this at 9am local time this morning, so things are still evolving and may rapidly change to a more favorable environment. Stay tuned to local media sources or your weather radio.

Back along the dryline, strong convergence with strong forcing will result in a rapid evolution into a squall line. I personally think we will see a severe widespread wind event as a result with a few weak to maybe a moderate tornado or two. Still, this is shaping up to be a serious severe weather threat and I hope everybody in the SPC outlook areas stay on their toes today and prepare an action plan. Even a weak tornado can ruin your day.

As far as chasing this event, I would if I lived down there. To make the long trip from Amarillo just isn't worth the effort of trying to keep up with potentially fast moving storm motions of 40 knots or greater. I guess I'm getting lazy and old. LOL!! That along with tight finances right now (still waiting to hear a final word on the exciting opportunity here in Amarillo) just doesn't add up to making the trip. Plus, it's February and I have the whole season in front of me. I'll be content to hang out in Amarillo and armchair chase.

Best of luck to those venturing out today. I hope to see some good video and pics!