Ramblings...some weather and a status update

The recent winter storm that spread havoc and destruction from Texas to the east coast is over with. What an impressive system!! Solid ice accumulations from freezing rain alone I hear was an inch thick in some places and even higher in isolated spots. This of course caused lots of tree damage and downed power lines over a very large geographical area.

Some of the more astonishing reports I saw were actually of sleet accumulations in Oklahoma. Some places reported in excess of 4 inches!! Incredible! There were numerous reports of 2-3 inches. I can't recall seeing that amount of sleet. Typically, with such meteorological setups, the required thermodynamic profiles usually change over a relatively short period of time...usually to snow. This is one for the record books to be sure.

Here in the Panhandle, we got a dusting of snow and up to 3 inches in the eastern parts. Along with that, we experienced a duration of freezing fog which coated the trees in a thin whitish ice. It was pretty cool looking. Freezing fog is something I rarely ever saw in North Central Texas, but it occurs more often here. Just one of the reasons I love living here. :-)

Tuesday was brutally cold as we remained in the teens all day long with light snow flurries and a few snow showers and of course the freezing fog. Brrrr. As the skies cleared, the mercury dropped to 4F just before midnight. On Wednesday, we hovered around 5F and then saw 56F for the high in less than 12 hours. That's a 51F swing! Incredible.

There is some chatter in the chase community about the upcoming chase season with concern about the drought we are in here in the southern plains...particularly the TX PH and W TX. I don't even start worrying about stuff like that until we get through February. Why? Because February is a "transition" month as the sun angle continues to climb and we get a little more heating in the northern hemisphere. As a result, the upper air pattern starts becoming more energetic with lots of changes. More often than not, it ends up being a pretty wet or snowy month into March....particularly over towards the I-35 corridor.

Speaking of which, our average annual snowfall is around 16 inches. We've had about an inch so far I think. We are very dry right now to say the least. Once again, the wildfire danger is extreme. Hopefully we can pick up more precip in February. Snow is actually preferred for soil moisture because it is much more efficient. The snow pack acts as an insulator which drastically reduces evaporation closer to the earth. In addition, it melts slowly and runoff is reduced.

So, with all of that said, I've been watching every model run for the past 5 days. There is consistent and convincing signs that the upper air pattern will undergo a major transition in February to one more typical for the month. The models are forecasting the annoying west coast ridge to be replaced by a persistance trough carved out by several Pacific storm systems. If they are correct, and I believe they have the right idea, we should start seeing things change in about 8 days and beyond. It's a pattern highly favorable for several significant precipitation episodes and perhaps even a pre-season severe weather event or two...most likely squall lines. Keep an eye on this one.

As far as the upcoming chase season, I start carefully noting the Gulf Of Mexico sea surface temperatures along with moisture profiles from the surface to 850mb. I really sink my teeth into such analysis by the start of March. Take 2006 for example, by March, if my memory serves accurately, the moisture profiles were absolutely dismal and the result was "The Year Of Cratering Surface Dewpoints". I remember the pain quite well. :-)

So, February will be an interesting month to watch without a doubt.

On to personal updates, I FINALLY have been granted a very important interview next week with the major opportunity here in Amarillo. I am pretty excited about it since I've passed the pre-screening process. To get to this point is a small personal victory. I have been working this since the middle of December with several starts and stops in the overall effort and at one point told that the position was being cancelled. I believe it's been a case of miscommunication between several parties involved. It's been a real roller coaster for me without a doubt. I'm ready to step off this ride, thank you. ;-) I still have other interviews in the works with DFW companies just in case this one falls through. However, I have a much higher level of confidence in staying in Amarillo than I've had since November. I'm stoked. :-) In fact, I've been fantasizing about buying a house...LOL!! Yeah, I know.

So, I hope to have an update next week along with more weather and chase related stuff. I know ya'll are getting tired of my personal matters. Believe me, I'm tired of it too. I'm ready for the strong, warm, moist low level jet to crank up and the dryline to come out of hibernation. :-)