Winter Cometh

Today, we are finally getting a serious blast of winter chill into the Panhandles in stark contrast to the beautiful weather we've enjoyed the past couple of months. Winds are howing out of the north here in the mid afternoon with temperatures around 42F. Still, it's not as brutal as what folks have been dealing with to the east of the Mississippi.

The upper air pattern responsible for this is a large ridge over the central US with a deep trough over the eastern states. This has opened up the doors of the arctic freezer and plunging unseasonably cold air as far south as Florida. However, there are signs that things are a changin'.

Although I'm looking at about 10 days out and beyond, there has been decent consistancy among the models. Plus, with the stubborn blocking pattern keeping the above-mentioned pattern locked in, it will break down eventually. What is being advertised makes meteorological sense. Still, we are talking about models 10 days and beyond, so nothing to really call a bet for now.

The advertised change breaks down the ridge with several strong pieces of energy coming in off the Pacific. Eventually, this will result in a very large, deep trough over the western half of the CONUS. During the transition, shortwaves will descend across the central US opening up the freezer door into the central and southern plains states. With the general deep troughiness over the western half of the US, this will setup favorable overrunning conditions resulting in several episodes of precipitation. It's a classic setup for wintery precipitation in the Texas Panhandle.

When would this occur? It looks like the weekend after Thanksgiving and beyond. But, as I keep harping about, this is on the outside edge of any reliable skill in the the model forecasts. There is enough of a hint there to really keep an eye on it though. At least it is more fun to watch than the stock markets sliding into the abyss of a depression.