Forecast Bust

If forecasting could be compared to football, mine was certainly the equivalent of the Cowboy's performance last Sunday. LOL!! I totally missed the mark about the warm front.

I watched several strong towers erupt and dissipate around Elkart, KS yesterday. Just as they seemed on the verge of producing a storm, the thick cirrus shield moved in and helped ruin the show. In addition, dewpoints mixed out into the mid/upper 40's in this area. The surface low was late getting organized due to the slower arrival of the upper dynamics which I was afraid of happening.

I ran into Wesley Luginbyhl, so we chatted for awhile and shared stories until we saw one cell finally going up west of Ulysses, KS towards sunset. Based on the storm motion away from our current position and waning daylight, we gritted our teeth and waved to it as it departed. So, technically, my forecast wasn't that bad really of a target being Springfield, CO since initiation was not too far east of there.

I really think if the jet dynamics would have been a couple hours earlier in arriving and a little further south, and along with the lack of a thick cirrus canopy, I would have been having some fun. I don't really regret the drive up there as I needed to get out of the house. I did get some decent sunset photos though below. Now, as I write this, the winds are howling out of the north with temps are in the lower 40's. The mercury won't rise beyond that today. I'm looking at the first frost of the fall season overnight. Bye bye 2008 chasing.

Ok...some pics.