Looking At Chasing Today

UPDATE: I'm going to head that way and monitor things. I'll keep evaluating whether to keep going or turn around and come home. :-)

Although there were a couple of good supercells yesterday around my target of Midland, it was pretty much a strong linear event and lots of rain. I'm glad I stayed home. :-) However, today is a different setup that just might get me out the door.

My focus will be around the Red River Valley between Childress and Wichita Falls and about 2-3 counties to the south. I'll draw a boundary from Childress to Guthrie to Seymour to Wichita Falls, to Altus, OK. I'm keeping a little more westward componant as I'm not sure if the boundary will move too far east along with convective initiation may be early around 20z.

Here, very steep lapse rates of 7-8C/km will prevail. A nice hybrid type boundary will setup here in conjuction with a weak surface low. The most impressive parameter I'm watching are the 0-3km CAPE profiles which according to the RUC approach 300j/kg. The overall CAPE will be 1000-1500j/kg. The NTSP index bullseyes this area too of 1.8 around Electra.

The main drawback is relatively unidirectional flow from 850mb on up. But, there is decent speed shear and forecast hodographs suggest possible splitting cells. The important 0-1km veering could be pretty sharp near the surface low which is what I'm hanging my hat on for today.

With the "doomsday" economic situation looming today, I need to get away from the computer. I can't think of a better excuse. :-) Plus, in looking at the models, this could very well be the last good chase opportunity until next spring. A MAJOR cold front is aimed on Texas this weekend.

I'm not totally sold on the idea of going just yet, but I'm leaning towards that possibility. If I do, I will be streaming today on my live chase page (link to your right.....no...your other right..lol). I'll update here if I do hit the road. My target pick of the day is Lockett, TX.