Yesterday's Report & Week Ahead.
My forecast was really off yesterday...stupid RUC. :-) The better storms popped up in Oklahoma where the shear was marginal. However, the 0-1 and 0-3km veering was great. Surface obs had a swath of moderately strong SE flow into the storms which also created strong convergence. I was encouraged by that and pressed onward.
The low-topped supercells were pretty intense for abit. At one point, one really got it's act together east of Lawton with a nice hook and radar-indicated meso. The velocity couplet was pretty good for a few scans. I was well positioned at the time looking right into the notch. A well cloud had developed and was exhibiting weak to moderate rotation with decent organization. I called it in to OUN.
The hook echo on radar became more pronounced. I continued to track it eastward towards Malone. At one point, the visible hook wrapped up more and created a tight notch. Lots of rapidly rising scud into the small wall cloud. It was cool to watch.
However, the storm, like all of the others, would become outflow dominant. I called it a day after the second storm approached Malone and was heavily outflow dominant. The show was over.
In all, it wasn't a bad chase trip, but I had hoped for a little more action and structure shots. In fact, I fired off only ONE photo during the whole event. It's not even worth posting. I did have one opportunity to get a good one, but trees and the fact I was navigating resulted in a lost opportunity. I made it back to Amarillo close to midnight.
Now for the week ahead....
Models are settling down now from yesterday. I had thought we sould see a very strong cold front plow into Texas by Saturday if not earlier. Today though, decent model consensus argues for a big, upper low to carve itself out west. If the GooFuS is correct, then we could indeed have at least a couple of days of good chase opportunity this weekend. I'm actually liking the looks of this system as the big, strong over-powering dynamics remain further west. Instead, we'll have SW flow aloft likely with embedded weaker impulses. With a dryline and increasing boundary layer moisture in place, it promises some action. Stay tuned!!!
The low-topped supercells were pretty intense for abit. At one point, one really got it's act together east of Lawton with a nice hook and radar-indicated meso. The velocity couplet was pretty good for a few scans. I was well positioned at the time looking right into the notch. A well cloud had developed and was exhibiting weak to moderate rotation with decent organization. I called it in to OUN.
The hook echo on radar became more pronounced. I continued to track it eastward towards Malone. At one point, the visible hook wrapped up more and created a tight notch. Lots of rapidly rising scud into the small wall cloud. It was cool to watch.
However, the storm, like all of the others, would become outflow dominant. I called it a day after the second storm approached Malone and was heavily outflow dominant. The show was over.
In all, it wasn't a bad chase trip, but I had hoped for a little more action and structure shots. In fact, I fired off only ONE photo during the whole event. It's not even worth posting. I did have one opportunity to get a good one, but trees and the fact I was navigating resulted in a lost opportunity. I made it back to Amarillo close to midnight.
Now for the week ahead....
Models are settling down now from yesterday. I had thought we sould see a very strong cold front plow into Texas by Saturday if not earlier. Today though, decent model consensus argues for a big, upper low to carve itself out west. If the GooFuS is correct, then we could indeed have at least a couple of days of good chase opportunity this weekend. I'm actually liking the looks of this system as the big, strong over-powering dynamics remain further west. Instead, we'll have SW flow aloft likely with embedded weaker impulses. With a dryline and increasing boundary layer moisture in place, it promises some action. Stay tuned!!!
posted by Steve Miller TX at 10/07/2008 10:26:00 AM
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