Chasing Today & Discovery's "Stormchasers" Review
Pouring over the data this morning, I'm starting to zero in on the area around Springfield, Colorado. RUC forecasts a surface low to develop there with strongly backed flow in the boundary layer to the east of it along a warm front. In addition, the convergence is forecast to really tighten up as SW winds clash with the SE and E flow. I love these types of setups as the helicity in a small area is really enhanced along with focuse, surface-induced horizontal vorticity. The 0-1 and 0-3km profiles are awesome looking.
RUC and NAM both are very good with the instabilities of 1000j/kg and above. LCLs will be favorable. The only problem is the forecast weak 700mb flow across SE CO. It is better a little further south along I-40. Aloft, very strong divergence and moderate diffluence will aid in vigorous updrafts as a strong punch of energy dives into the southern Rockies. Although the best part of this energy will spread out into the area towards dark, enough will be there late this afternoon in my opinion for some stout storms. Just after dark and towards midnight, storms should actually intensify and could put on a good lightning display. By that time, they should go linear, primarily from forcing along the cold front.
I think it is a setup where one storm will produce a couple of bonafied, visible tornadoes early in the event followed by more rain wrapped and dopplar-indicated tornadoes, but in a pretty small area near the surface low and along the warm front. Everything else will qucikly cluster into line segments and produce a wind and hail event.
I'm hanging my hat on the RUC because I believe it has a good handle on the expected surface features by 23z in response to the approaching upstream energy. It makes sense. However, the warm front is still down south near Lubbock, so it will be interesting to see if it ends up further south this afternoon than the RUC forecast....or....we have a double-warm front scenario. If this were to happen, and I'm looking at this possibility, then areas around I-40 might be in play too.
So, headed to Dalhart shortly and adjust as needed along the way as I continue to digest data on the road...and whatever else I can scrounge up. ;-) Keep an eye on my live chase page...link to the right.
Sunday night, I watched the new series on Discovery Channel called "Stormchasers" in it's 2nd season now. This year, Reed Timmer, Joel Taylor and Chris Chittick are cast alongside the TIV2/DOW teams. The first episode I thought was very entertaining and fairly well produced. Although there is the usual moaning concerning the use of unrelated footage to the portrayed day in the episode, that is what TV shows do to make the best possible product for their customers...the audience. I seriously doubt the "stormchasing community" is even a blip on the radar concerning their target demographic. Some chasers just don't get it. We really aren't as important as some people think we are. LOL!!
In any event, I found Reed and Joel along with Chris to keep my attention as well as give me a chuckle or two. They are genuinely funny in being their natural selves. The baseball test in the sporting goods store was priceless! Their extreme enthusiasm and desire to get up close and personal to their prey is fun to watch and even produces an air of suspense.
The DOW/TIV scenes are interesting from a more scientific aspect. There is some drama there as well since they are behind schedule in heading out. The TIV axle breaking down though was embarassing though. It was plainly obvious to me that the axle was far from being able to support all of the weight from the armor plating including the load balance and torque strain which must be tremndous. Somebody didn't do their homework and use a calculator. But, hopefully they'll figure out how to make it work. I know I saw them a couple of times this season, so they did something.
Sean's brand of humor doesn't jive with me personally though. It just never seems appropriate to the situation at hand and comes across awkward. I can hear some eyeballs rolling in the background. ;-) But, that's who he is and I won't fault him for that. Heck, not everybody appreciates my brand of humor either. The TIV2 is definitely a nice piece of work other than the axle issue. The deployable hydraulic flaps to greatly reduce any wind from getting under the vehicle to flip it is a great idea and they seem to work well. Maybe one day we'll see if it actually works if a tornado hits it. I certainly hope that they achieve their ultimate goal of getting that one shot they are wanting so badly.
I found myself at the end of the program wanting to see more and anticipating the next episode. I found it "ENTERTAINING" to watch. That's the whole point. Don't miss it.
In honor of Reed and Joel's debut, I created this little gem just for them...all in some good-natured fun. :-)
RUC and NAM both are very good with the instabilities of 1000j/kg and above. LCLs will be favorable. The only problem is the forecast weak 700mb flow across SE CO. It is better a little further south along I-40. Aloft, very strong divergence and moderate diffluence will aid in vigorous updrafts as a strong punch of energy dives into the southern Rockies. Although the best part of this energy will spread out into the area towards dark, enough will be there late this afternoon in my opinion for some stout storms. Just after dark and towards midnight, storms should actually intensify and could put on a good lightning display. By that time, they should go linear, primarily from forcing along the cold front.
I think it is a setup where one storm will produce a couple of bonafied, visible tornadoes early in the event followed by more rain wrapped and dopplar-indicated tornadoes, but in a pretty small area near the surface low and along the warm front. Everything else will qucikly cluster into line segments and produce a wind and hail event.
I'm hanging my hat on the RUC because I believe it has a good handle on the expected surface features by 23z in response to the approaching upstream energy. It makes sense. However, the warm front is still down south near Lubbock, so it will be interesting to see if it ends up further south this afternoon than the RUC forecast....or....we have a double-warm front scenario. If this were to happen, and I'm looking at this possibility, then areas around I-40 might be in play too.
So, headed to Dalhart shortly and adjust as needed along the way as I continue to digest data on the road...and whatever else I can scrounge up. ;-) Keep an eye on my live chase page...link to the right.
Sunday night, I watched the new series on Discovery Channel called "Stormchasers" in it's 2nd season now. This year, Reed Timmer, Joel Taylor and Chris Chittick are cast alongside the TIV2/DOW teams. The first episode I thought was very entertaining and fairly well produced. Although there is the usual moaning concerning the use of unrelated footage to the portrayed day in the episode, that is what TV shows do to make the best possible product for their customers...the audience. I seriously doubt the "stormchasing community" is even a blip on the radar concerning their target demographic. Some chasers just don't get it. We really aren't as important as some people think we are. LOL!!
In any event, I found Reed and Joel along with Chris to keep my attention as well as give me a chuckle or two. They are genuinely funny in being their natural selves. The baseball test in the sporting goods store was priceless! Their extreme enthusiasm and desire to get up close and personal to their prey is fun to watch and even produces an air of suspense.
The DOW/TIV scenes are interesting from a more scientific aspect. There is some drama there as well since they are behind schedule in heading out. The TIV axle breaking down though was embarassing though. It was plainly obvious to me that the axle was far from being able to support all of the weight from the armor plating including the load balance and torque strain which must be tremndous. Somebody didn't do their homework and use a calculator. But, hopefully they'll figure out how to make it work. I know I saw them a couple of times this season, so they did something.
Sean's brand of humor doesn't jive with me personally though. It just never seems appropriate to the situation at hand and comes across awkward. I can hear some eyeballs rolling in the background. ;-) But, that's who he is and I won't fault him for that. Heck, not everybody appreciates my brand of humor either. The TIV2 is definitely a nice piece of work other than the axle issue. The deployable hydraulic flaps to greatly reduce any wind from getting under the vehicle to flip it is a great idea and they seem to work well. Maybe one day we'll see if it actually works if a tornado hits it. I certainly hope that they achieve their ultimate goal of getting that one shot they are wanting so badly.
I found myself at the end of the program wanting to see more and anticipating the next episode. I found it "ENTERTAINING" to watch. That's the whole point. Don't miss it.
In honor of Reed and Joel's debut, I created this little gem just for them...all in some good-natured fun. :-)
posted by Steve Miller TX at 10/21/2008 11:09:00 AM
2 Comments:
totally off-topic here but.............you don't have an account with Chase bank, do you?
I was with you on SE Colorado yesterday ... thought it would fire earlier ... stupid high clouds!!
We ended up sitting on the cold front in Yuma County (Colorado), but all the convection was elevated. Guess it felt good to get out one more time this year.
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