Chasing Today?

UPDATE 17Z: I'm staying put. If I lived closer, say Lubbock, I'd venture out. I find more comfort in the idea of staying home on a rainy day, ordering a pizza and watching football. :-)

As I continue to analyze data, I'm really perplexed in making a decision to go today. I think the SPC outlook is a good one. My target would be Midland, TX. That is a pretty decent drive from Amarillo. The main thing keeping me from going right now is the fact that this is such a strong system with excessive amounts of UVV and practically no cap. I'm inclined to believe that there will be too much convection and the good stuff that does form will quickly go linear. In short, it's a long shot to get anything develop worthy of the time and gas to drive down there.

However, there will likely be a pretty strong thermal boundary as well as potential outflow boundary thanks to a massive, moderate/heavy precipitation shield further north in the TX Panhandle and most of W TX. Insolation should be prety decent in the warm sector south of that shield along with dewpoints into the 60's. This will result in favorable LCLs. If the models are correct in backing the boundary layer flow, vertical wind profiles will be pretty good. So, anything that can remain discreet, especially if the cap ends up being abit stronger than forecast, then I'm sure there will be a pretty good tornadic supercell to be had.

As of now though, I think the odds are pretty long as I mentioned. The little formula in my head of
(DISTANCE / MPG * GAS$ + TIME * ODDS%)
combined with driving through LOTS of rain just to get there isn't meeting the threshold of jumping in the vehicle. I'm pretty certain I'll be sitting this one out today as the time to make a permanent decision is approaching in the next hour.